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The underlying problem not being talked about:
There is no simple way of measuring transmissibility of a strain independent of environmental factors (winter) and social factors (degree of interaction)
Both R and growth rate reflect these factors *and* any viral factors
1/7 https://twitter.com/DavidRoseUK/status/1340928551797833728
There is no simple way of measuring transmissibility of a strain independent of environmental factors (winter) and social factors (degree of interaction)
Both R and growth rate reflect these factors *and* any viral factors
1/7 https://twitter.com/DavidRoseUK/status/1340928551797833728
Moreover, showing that a strain/variant produces higher viral load (in mice (!) or in humans) does not prove higher transmissibility - since there is at most a weak correlation between viral load and transmission
Children often have high viral load but transmit less
2/7
Children often have high viral load but transmit less
2/7
What we have seen with this variant so far is mere correlation - a particular variant emerged at a time when many other factors (social, environmental) promote transmission
Correlation is (again) being weaponised to justify policy change
3/7
Correlation is (again) being weaponised to justify policy change
3/7
@BallouxFrancois has explored other potential reasons for the correlation, including founder effects and chance / superspreading - this could explain why one strain becomes dominant over others, for example
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1340553054098239488?s=20
4/7
https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/status/1340553054098239488?s=20
4/7
I am open to being proved wrong - but variations in R / growth rate, let alone variations in virus genetics, prove little
There may be some viral factors at play here, but claiming that they are the dominant factors is unreasonable
Please post best counter-evidence below
5/7
There may be some viral factors at play here, but claiming that they are the dominant factors is unreasonable
Please post best counter-evidence below
5/7
Current discussion appears to be an example of microbial determinism - like genetic determinism, overestimation of causal power to genes, people also overestimate causal power of microbes
To cause harm, microbes interact with host, society & environment (many factors)
6/7
To cause harm, microbes interact with host, society & environment (many factors)
6/7
We discussed microbial determinism in this paper about asymptomatic infection (and elsewhere)
This year, over-attribution of causal power to microbes has led to a lot of confusion - and discussion of the new variant is another example
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40592-020-00123-z
7/7
This year, over-attribution of causal power to microbes has led to a lot of confusion - and discussion of the new variant is another example
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40592-020-00123-z
7/7
