1. The ISI seems to be truly sharpening (& exercising) its covert assassination programme against dissidents abroad. Of course, no one can point the finger on the org. forensically given the nature of the ops, but the signalling is breathtaking. A quick thread:

2. The ISI is not new to covert assassinations on foreign soil. Much to the contrary. But, *where*, *when*, & *against whom* it carries out such ops is critical. Select Asian (& its a big continent!) countries have been preferred over others.

3. There was reluctance in the past to undertake ops in Western countries. The alleged killings (imp. to remember that these are just allegations) in Sweden & Canada of Baloch dissidents is a shift in modus operandi (even if the capabilities existed, they were not exercised).

4. If the deaths of Sajid Hussain & Karima Baloch are linked to the ISI, it means Pindi has taken a strategic decision to escalate the use of covert assassinations in previously untouched territory using means that are unclear if not untraceable. This has serious implications.

5. First, the method: They can be done by carefully infiltrating & removing assassins in time before the investigation cycle begins. This is a costly but effective method & is often used by agencies & mafiosi. But it may also recruit local criminal elements to do the job.

6. Then, the message: To kill a dissident abroad is not just to inform the target group/community about the red-lines not to be crossed; but is also meant to instil enduring fear among critics that *exile is not escape*.

7. It is also a msg to the host govt. in question i.e. Pakistan would rather risk the diplomatic costs of such ops being exposed (akin to Israel?), instead of being deterred on this count any further. The inspiration here might be coming from Jerusalem, and/or Moscow?

8. Geopolitical context: In addition to reflecting the increasingly difficult domestic situation within Pakistan, this also reflects Pindi's evolving view of Western countries: embattled, & no more *untouchable* on this covert warfare front (some countries, if not all)?

9. Increasingly reliant on its strategic partnership w/ China (& Russia) as well as imminent opening up to Israel, Pakistan is testing waters on how far it can prod a distracted West w/o massive increment in dip., pol., & sec. costs. Something to watch out for.

10. Finally, it is also a msg to rivals such as India i.e. Pindi might be escalating its covert war horizontally in regions previously not on its map. What such display of capabilities & intent leads to is difficult to say, but it is an incredibly dangerous game *if true*.

11. @Johann_C_C raises am imp pt. here. If this is what many suspect it is, then the modus operandi is eerily similar (& maybe the unit/individuals?). Canadian & Swedish authorities should have a lot to talk about atm. Will they? https://twitter.com/Johann_C_C/status/1341496463315132422

*(& maybe the unit/individuals too are the same?)