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There's a series of tweets going around that Biden claimed more votes than eligible voters. The primary source of this false claim is @Bill_Binney aided by @JoeHoft via @gatewaypundit . This is a dive into it. You may have seen this. 
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Jim Hoft's tweet links to a @GatewayPundit article (link below) that references a tweet by @Bill_Binney
Gateway pundit link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/breaking-huge-simple-math-shows-biden-claims-13-million-votes-eligible-voters-voted-2020-election/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
Gateway pundit link: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2020/12/breaking-huge-simple-math-shows-biden-claims-13-million-votes-eligible-voters-voted-2020-election/?utm_source=Twitter&utm_campaign=websitesharingbuttons
@Bill_Binney referenced a @washingtonpost article (link below) on voter turnout.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/voter-turnout/
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/elections/voter-turnout/
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@Bill_Binney then picked up a voter turnout percentage from the WP article of 66.2%. Here is where he got it. Note the highlighted area:
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The 66.2% figure came from the US elections project. It is the % of the voting-eligible population (VEP) that voted in 2020. VEP is the people who meet the legal requirements to vote (age, citizenship, non-felon, etc.) whether they are registered or not.
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Link to US Elections Project Below. They got the 66.2% figure by taking the votes cast & dividing by the VEP. Note VEP is not registered voters. It is higher because it includes eligible but unregistered.
http://www.electproject.org/2020g
& their spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h_2pR1pq8s_I5buZ5agXS9q1vLziECztN2uWeR6Czo0/edit#gid=2030096602
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http://www.electproject.org/2020g
& their spreadsheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1h_2pR1pq8s_I5buZ5agXS9q1vLziECztN2uWeR6Czo0/edit#gid=2030096602
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VEP is 239 Million. Actual votes for President was 158 million. This is 66.1% (The WP used 66.2% as the number of votes has changed.)
@Bill_Binney then took this 66.2% amount & made a logic error. He applied it to registered voters rather than VEP.
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@Bill_Binney then took this 66.2% amount & made a logic error. He applied it to registered voters rather than VEP.
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He used 212 million registered voters. But the 66.2% was based upon the higher voting eligible population which includes unregistered people who could vote.
So he came to the incorrect conclusion that there could only be 140.334 M votes.
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So he came to the incorrect conclusion that there could only be 140.334 M votes.
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@gatewaypundit then took @Bill_Binney tweet & made the same logic error but applied the 66.2% to 213.8Million registered voters. That came up with 141.5 Million votes & said if Trump got 74 million votes there would only be 67.5 Million for Biden.
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Simply put, turnout of Registered voters is higher than VEP because VEP includes non-registered but otherwise eligible citizens. The 66.2% should not have been applied to registered voters.
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This misinformation created by @Bill_Binney & spread by @gatewaypundit has been spread far & wide.
I don't know if it was simply a logic error in not understanding VEP or was intentional. But it is wrong.
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I don't know if it was simply a logic error in not understanding VEP or was intentional. But it is wrong.
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Here's the math showing the error:
Note the 213,800 registered voters was actually @GatewayPundit. @Bill_Binney used 212M
