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Four days ago, Oxford University published a report on US state government responses to Covid-19, showing a wide divergence in relative stringency with that divergence growing over time as 1/2 the US states open up and 1/2 continue to lock-down:
This study, if anything, understates the differences between states as I have personally visited 20 states since this Summer and the day-to-day experiences in Alabama or Idaho vs. Washington or Nevada are dramatically and obviously different.
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-12/BSG-WP-2020-034-v2_0.pdf
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-12/BSG-WP-2020-034-v2_0.pdf
The obvious question is: have the stringent states bought anything with their authoritarian limits on personal freedom?
Looking at cumulative Covid deaths, there is no clear correlation between stringency and mortality:
Looking at cumulative Covid deaths, there is no clear correlation between stringency and mortality:
What about cases? The free states appeared to be doing worse over the Summer and early Fall, but the authoritarian states have seen dramatic increases since early November while the the free states have plateaued:
A similar story hold for hospitalized patients (data only available since July) - the free states looked to be doing worse over the Summer, but the growth over the past 8 weeks has come from locked-down states:
Deaths per day have peaked and have begun to decline in free states while the authoritarian states continue to see daily increases in Covid mortality:
Interestingly, the most and least restrictive states have almost exactly the same number of cumulative reported Covid deaths per million, currently:
So, what have the authoritarian states achieved with their restrictions? No reduction in cases, nor in hospitalizations, nor in deaths.
The spread of Covid-19 follows regional-seasonal patterns and its impact appears to be independent of government or personal behavior.
The spread of Covid-19 follows regional-seasonal patterns and its impact appears to be independent of government or personal behavior.
The governors of the most restrictive states did achieve one thing with all their interventions, though: unemployment nearly 2X that seen in the least restrictive states.
