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Now that the UK has ruled out Provisional Application acc to @PippaCrerar, where were things at on the EU side with that?
2/ This morning the European Parliament ruled out ratifying any agreement before the Dec 31 deadline as there would not be enough time to scrutinise the text
3/ So, if we got a deal in the next day or two that would require a decision to go for Provisional Application on Jan 1, with the EP ratifying later.
4/ The EU's chief negotiator @MichelBarnier would have to propose Provisional Application to the Council and then member states have the sole right to grant it. EP sources say the Commission has offered to consult MEPs on any proposals, but it is not a legal requirement
5/ Sources say Dec 23 is the last realistic date to arrange provisional application as it, too, requires legal procedures. Either way, by rejecting Provisional Application today the UK is effectively guaranteeing a period of No Deal on January 1 (as Barnier warned one week ago)
6/ In that scenario the European Commission's No Deal contingency plans for aviation, road haulage, rail travel and fisheries would kick in (the latter wd mean continued reciprocal access to each other's waters but the UK has already ruled that out)
7/ If there is a deal in the coming days the EP's UK coordination group could recommend an emergency plenary session in early January to ratify, but some members of the group would want proper time to scrutinise (one member says the February plenary wd be appropriate)
8/ It's understood the EP has written to @VDombrovskis, EU trade commissioner, to make provisional parts of the FTA draft text available in the EP's reading room for MEPs to digest (under the rules no note-taking or phones allowed)
9/ The oddity here would be that member states have yet to see any draft legal text
10/ There is no legal way to extend the transition as it was arranged under Article 50, and the Withdrawal Agreement states that a transition would have to be done before June 2020. Article 50 is now exhausted as a legal option
11/ There is some speculation about both sides agreeing a quick bilateral legal agreement, possibly by way of an exchange of letters, to simply keep the status quo so no cliff edge on January 1.
12/ Such an option would probably have to refer back to A50 as it was the basis on which the transition was enabled. As the UK has already left the EU (Jan 31) that wd be a legally questionable route...probably
13/ It's also politically fraught. An exchange of letters wd have to be proposed by the Commission and agreed by the member states and European Parliament, and the latter has already said there's no time left to do anything meaningful...
14/ Above all, if the UK is ruling out Provisional Application today, then why would it agree to an exchange of letters esp if it looks like extending the transition by another name...?
