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1/7
I was wondering just how long it would take before the PBoC responded to Sunday’s fairly harsh criticism of its regulatory oversight by former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei. It took just a day, suggesting just how fierce the policy debates... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3114811/china-central-bank-dismisses-criticism-its-financial?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3114811
I was wondering just how long it would take before the PBoC responded to Sunday’s fairly harsh criticism of its regulatory oversight by former Finance Minister Lou Jiwei. It took just a day, suggesting just how fierce the policy debates... https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3114811/china-central-bank-dismisses-criticism-its-financial?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=share_widget&utm_campaign=3114811
2/7
have become that are normally kept behind closed doors. In an article today in Finance News, the newspaper affiliated with the central bank, a PBoC spokesperson wrote that people think that the problems Lou Jiwei identified are financial market...
have become that are normally kept behind closed doors. In an article today in Finance News, the newspaper affiliated with the central bank, a PBoC spokesperson wrote that people think that the problems Lou Jiwei identified are financial market...
3/7
problems: “Actually they’re not. They are a reflection of government intervention and the inadequate reform of local government-owned enterprises.”
I think this is absolutely correct, even though the PBoC wasn’t able to speak as clearly as it might have wanted to. In...
problems: “Actually they’re not. They are a reflection of government intervention and the inadequate reform of local government-owned enterprises.”
I think this is absolutely correct, even though the PBoC wasn’t able to speak as clearly as it might have wanted to. In...
4/7
my comment earlier today I pointed out, as I have for years, that excess leverage and problems in the bond market are not caused by a failure of regulatory oversight. They are the direct consequence of a model that effectively requires... https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1340902392829779970
my comment earlier today I pointed out, as I have for years, that excess leverage and problems in the bond market are not caused by a failure of regulatory oversight. They are the direct consequence of a model that effectively requires... https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1340902392829779970
5/7
bad lending to support the non-productive investment needed to hit GDP growth targets. As long as Beijing insists on unrealistically high GDP growth targets, there is absolutely nothing the regulators can do to prevent a worsening of the debt burden.
bad lending to support the non-productive investment needed to hit GDP growth targets. As long as Beijing insists on unrealistically high GDP growth targets, there is absolutely nothing the regulators can do to prevent a worsening of the debt burden.
6/7
This issue isn’t going away. I think the debate might temporarily abate later in 2021, mainly because Beijing will be able to generate GDP growth of around 7% while holding the debt-to-GDP ratio steady, but this will only reflect a partial growth bounceback from 2020, and...
This issue isn’t going away. I think the debate might temporarily abate later in 2021, mainly because Beijing will be able to generate GDP growth of around 7% while holding the debt-to-GDP ratio steady, but this will only reflect a partial growth bounceback from 2020, and...
7/7
there will be no hiding the fact that debt ratio worsened considerably over the combined 2020-21 period. The debt burden will begin to deteriorate rapidly once again in 2022, and meanwhile every few months we will see something new disturb the financial sector.
there will be no hiding the fact that debt ratio worsened considerably over the combined 2020-21 period. The debt burden will begin to deteriorate rapidly once again in 2022, and meanwhile every few months we will see something new disturb the financial sector.
