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The evidence on the new SARS-CoV2 variant considered by NervTag was 1) growth rate from genomic data (increased growth rate); 2) studies of R-values and detection of the variant (suggested increase); 3) PCR ct values in diagnostic tests (drop); 4) viral load increases based on
unique genome reads especially for the N501Y mutation. This change is in the RBD and causes some concern (figure @pstansfeld). Two things we don’t know: whether there is antigenic escape (consequences for re-infections) and whether lateral flow devises (rapid tests) detect it.
To note is that although the evidence is still circumstantial and a founder effect is not necessarily out of the question, growth of the variant in relatively high prevalence suggests a selective advantage. It remains to be seen if it escapes vaccines. We need to find out.
This preprint https://biorxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2020.12.18.423507v shows escape from CD8+, after MHCI presentation of mutant peptides. So it’s not only neutralising antibodies we should be looking out for in that respect.
