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With 10 days to go, there are three main outcomes of the #Brexit talks:
1) no deal
2) the two sides are still talking but run out of time - qu if can find other ways to buy more time
3) a deal is reached which the UK ratifies & EU provisionally applies
1) no deal
2) the two sides are still talking but run out of time - qu if can find other ways to buy more time
3) a deal is reached which the UK ratifies & EU provisionally applies
In some ways, option one is the most simple
If the two sides walk away then we dont need to see the govt recalling UK parliament & the european parliament also doesn't need to vote
If the two sides walk away then we dont need to see the govt recalling UK parliament & the european parliament also doesn't need to vote
But no deal isnt a sustainable endstate - lots of reasons the UK will need to work with EU in the future
While I dont think UK will be straight back to the negotiating table - esp if PM unwilling to compromise in current circumstances - there will still be unresolved issues
While I dont think UK will be straight back to the negotiating table - esp if PM unwilling to compromise in current circumstances - there will still be unresolved issues
Option two is probably the most challenging - where both sides think there is a deal to be done but the clock just runs out...
They may want to buy more time for talks but as @GeorginaEWright has pointed out, it is really much more complicated than that: https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1341012943698276356
They may want to buy more time for talks but as @GeorginaEWright has pointed out, it is really much more complicated than that: https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1341012943698276356
Which means that for many, option 3 (a deal) is really the best outcome
Although @aliceolilly has pointed out recall has been complicated by covid rules: https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1340573223361064960
There is still - just about - enough time for the UK parliament to pass implementing legislation
Although @aliceolilly has pointed out recall has been complicated by covid rules: https://twitter.com/aliceolilly/status/1340573223361064960
There is still - just about - enough time for the UK parliament to pass implementing legislation
If not, it is possible that the govt implements some aspects of the treaty through SI (eg tariff changes) and deals with the rest in the new year - would undermine usual convention but is possible
More on UK process here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-uk-ratification
More on UK process here: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/future-relationship-uk-ratification
The european parliament's sunday night deadline has passed - if a deal had been reached by the EP would have voted on it before the end of the year
But, although politically difficult, the Council can still chose to provisionally apply the treaty: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ratifying-uk-eu-deal-brexit-headache
But, although politically difficult, the Council can still chose to provisionally apply the treaty: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/blog/ratifying-uk-eu-deal-brexit-headache
While MEPs may be unhappy with this approach, the alternative would be a huge amount of disruption for EU individuals & businesses for a short period of time - a decision that could be difficult for MS to justify
But worth remembering that huge changes are coming deal or no deal (more from @Joe_Marshall0 here: https://twitter.com/Joe_Marshall0/status/1328639302205640705) & the later it gets, the more difficult it is for businesses to put the necessary prep in place
As we discussed two weeks ago: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/three-weeks-go-business-ready-brexit
As we discussed two weeks ago: https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/events/three-weeks-go-business-ready-brexit
It feels pretty astonishing to be ten days from the end of the transition period with so much uncertainty about what rules will govern trade with our nearest neighbour
It is looking increasingly difficult for the govt to justify its decision not to extend the transition period
It is looking increasingly difficult for the govt to justify its decision not to extend the transition period
Given where we are, the PM urgently needs to decide whether a compromise with the EU is worth it to get a deal
And if he decides it isn't, rather than talking about the UK 'prospering mightily', he needs to honestly communicate the realities of a no deal Brexit
And if he decides it isn't, rather than talking about the UK 'prospering mightily', he needs to honestly communicate the realities of a no deal Brexit
