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OK, some data, a thread. To prioritize vaccines, it is useful to understand relative likelihood of infection and relative likeihood of death. Here are the proportions of recent cases in Georgia by age group. 1/
Now, we want to adjust those by the demographics.
Leading to the relative risk of infection.
We need to factor in the relative risk of death given infection. I use @GidMK 's formula.
Combining those, we get value in saved lives of vaccines by age group.
So, when I said it was crazy to give a vaccine to a 35 year old resident over someone over age 75, I meant the vaccine would have 125 times more value (in lives saved) if you give it to the senior citizen. There are ways of devaluing life based on expectancy...
in economics, but they also do not come close to the age selectivity of COVID-19. The same is true of increased infections rates in first responders. They may account for one decade of life, not five.
I stand by my original premise. A strict age ordering of vaccines makes the most sense for America. In particular, placing the 20M over 75 Americans before the 20M health care workers, which accounts for one month of vaccine supply, will save tens of thousands of American lives.
