#Matungu by election is shaping up to be interesting one in many ways. The MP who passed away was an ANC-elected MP who had rebelled and was now backing DP Ruto.

So the by election should ideally have:

ANC candidate

Ruto candidate

ODM candidate

#ANC has already revealed they’ve picked the number two in the 2017 polls. But this no.2 was a Ford Kenya candidate. It means ANC has poached from #FordKenya, and Ford Kenya now has no strong candidate.

Internal factional wars in Ford Kenya has seen Wetangula move quick to back the ANC pick, per credible sources. This leaves the Wamunyinyi-Eseli faction to decide whether to look for another candidate and field or not.

DP Ruto candidate in Matungu was the dead MP. Now he too has to decide whether to pick a candidate or back the ANC candidate. But if he picks a candidate, on what party? Independent? Perhaps family member of the late MP? Or the CDF manager?

DP Ruto knows he has the momentum from Msambweni and would not want to spoil it. I see him being opportunistic. While he defeated ODM in Msambweni, it’s not easy to replicate the strategy as western dynamics are different, or is it?

NOT sure why the ODM Party, which has indicated its fielding a candidate, is doing so. ODM won the seat in 2013 but the MP, David Were, moved to Jubilee ahead of 2017. He came a distant third after the ANC and Ford Kenya candidates. ODM then got a fringe candidate who lost badly

The governor of the county is ODM. Can his backing help ODM? This is an election which ODM is not a horse but a limping donkey. Anyway, let’s see how it goes...