EXPANDED THREAD on the fracturing of evangelicalism:

I keep thinking about what I’m observing as I talk to other pastors & ministry leaders around the country and I think that evangelicalism is fracturing into at least 6 distinct groups:

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1. Christian nationalists/neo-fundamentalists

2. Evangelicals - still committed to culture war but not with the same dynamics as # 1s

3. Post-Evangelicals - doctrinally identical to # 2s but uncomfortable w/ political implications of ‘evangelical’ label and diff in phil. of min

4. Ex-vangelicals - similar to # 3s but actively/vocally more critical of groups 1 and 2

5. Dechurched but some Jesus - similar to # 4 but tension w/ church has led them to leave institutional church and doubts rising

6. Dechurched but no Jesus - no longer a Christian

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Anecdotally from my vantage point, this sifting of evangelicalism has been happening for at least 20 years (rise of evangelical left, emergent church, God and country folks) but is picking up in its pace in the 2015-present era.

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From a center of mass perspective - @TGC appears to be more of a single bell curve.

I believe that denominations (like say the PCA or SBC) will increasingly have bimodal distribution over time...

These two peaks will be in the 2.6 range and the 1.5 range as time progresses

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Given another 5-10 years I think those that were formerly simple known as “evangelical” will look something like this:

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The largest gains will be in categories 1 and 3 and the largest decline in group 2. 

I think it will be increasingly difficult for organizations and local churches to span more than 2.25-2.5 range internally as the elasticity in the rubber band stretches to breaking points.

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Larger churches can have a bit more elasticity in the 2.5-2.75 range and smaller churches will have less elasticity in the 2.0 range.

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If this holds true then three paradigms of churches or ministries will develop over time:

Type A: 1s and 2s
Type B: 2s and 3s
Type C: 3s and 4s

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Type A exemplars:
John MacArthur
Tom Ascol
Voddie Baucham
Robert Jeffress
CBN
GTY
Ligonier

Type B exemplars:
Mark Dever
Irwyn Ince
JD Greear
Matt Chandler
TGC

Type C exemplars:
Scott Sauls
Thabiti Anyabwile

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2015-2020 has tightened the rubber band and increasingly highlighted and strained long-standing fault lines.

During this same time frame, the absence of commonly agreed upon external foes the internal fault lines were additionally stressed.

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If you’ve been a # 3-5 for some time then the current conversations or observations about this fracturing are likely not as new, jarring, or traumatic.

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The bottom line is there is more fracturing to occur in the next 5-10 years.

There will be undulations or churches or ministries from:
A to B
B to A
B to C

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There will be many implications from this sifting - pastoral, philosophy of ministry, sociological, generational, ethnic, cultural, political, and economic.

Great wisdom will be required by leaders during this time and loving people well as these things continue to sort.

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