As far as I am concerned Boris JOHNSON is toast, as are all of his CABINET colleagues who have been universally useless, alienating and dishonest. I therefore think it might be a good idea to think through who could lead an EMERGENCY GOVERNMENT OF NATIONAL UNITY... 1/
Firstly, I foresee an EMERGENCY GOVERNMENT being given a relatively tight brief, focused on dealing with the COVID epidemic. The QUEEN may have to phone Angela MERKEL and ask for an EXTENSION to the TRANSION PERIOD in person, in order to buy time. This would be hard to refuse. /2
There isn't time to hold a GENERAL ELECTION any time soon, so any replacement PRIME MINISTER and CABINET will need to be appointed quickly... and include the best politicians, public health experts, clinicians and scientists...
Anyone involved in creating this mess will be ineligible, e.g. Michael GOVE, so as far as politicians are concerned the QUEEN will need to appoint mostly retired leaders with experience, recently defeated MPs, respected wise heads and perhaps a few young guns... 4/
The most obvious person of integrity to be an EMERGENCY PRIME MINISTER is Dominic GRIEVE. He chaired the ISC which wrote the RUSSIA REPORT, annoyed Tories by resisting a NO DEAL BREXIT and will annoy LABOUR supporters by being TORY... Everyone annoyed, means everyone happy. 5/
Keir STARMER is in a tricky position as he may not want to lead a temporary EMERGENCY GOVERNMENT and prefer to fight a future GENERAL ELECTION based on a post BREXIT / COVID agenda and to allow a more neutral temporary leader to guide the nation based on certain conditions. 6/
Some LABOUR MPs that were overlooked by Jeremy CORBYN may be pressed into action. People like David LAMMY + Yvette COOPER. I can also imagine BREXITEERS such as Lisa NANDY + Stephen KINNOCK being given bigger roles than people might expect, so this isn't seen as a REMAIN gov. 7/
People from other parties may also be offered decent roles such as Ian BLACKFORD (SNP), Caroline LUCAS (GREENS) and Layla MORAN (LIB DEMS) so that this all has some cross party credibility. /8
The more senior CONSERVATIVES may be so offended by the dismissal / resignation of Boris JOHNSON but a few of the more "flexible" may decide to hold their noses and join in. They would all struggle to say no to the QUEEN, if asked. /9
A central plank of any alternative anti-COVID strategy, to the failed and pseudo-scientific "HERD IMMUNITY" approach adopted by Boris JOHNSON and Dominic CUMMINGS, is likely to be ZERO COVID... /10
This means that some of the scientists that have been advocating this approach all summer are likely to be asked to join any EMERGENCY CABINET. The members of INDEPENDENT SAGE are the obvious starting place, but there may also be others in the CIVIL SERVICE + academia... /11
Once COVID has been brought under control by a combination of strict public health controls, high quality home schooling / remote teaching and new public welfare programmes (within 4 - 6 months) the country could think about holding a GENERAL ELECTION and revisiting BREXIT... /12
Once the UK's conquered the harsh realities of COVID, alternatives to BREXIT may start to feel like a better use of time + more important. The QUEEN could then hand over to PRINCE CHARLES safe in the knowledge that the role of the MONARCHY's safe for the next 100 - 200 years. END
If you think other scenarios are more likely or better, why not say what you think? Everything and anything is possible right now, as we're in the middle of a massive national and Constitutional crisis in which the usual rules and assumptions may stop applying...
You can follow @mattprescott.
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