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What makes a “new strain?” A new strain is a virus with a new biological property. Thank you to the #twiv team for explaining it so clearly. A thread. (1/n)
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-696/
https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-696/
There have been no new properties ascribed to the new isolate circulating in the UK other than sequence differences, which is not enough to make a new strain. It’s just a different variant. (2/n)
There are a few variants circulating because that is what viruses do – they mutate all the time (especially RNA viruses). (3/n)
This particular variant is defined by multiple changes in the spike protein. The detailed effects of these changes remain to be determined fully. Nobody has done any experiments to determine the effect of these changes on any property of the virus. (4/n)
England’s Health Secretary, Matt Hancock, told the House of Commons on December 14, that initial analysis showed that the variant “may be associated with the recent rise in cases in the UK.” And the press immediately translated this phrase into “IS associated with.” (5/n)
What probably happened? Some person probably became infected with this new variant, went to choir practice, and spread it to 100 other people. It really is all a matter of luck (for the virus). (6/n)
All it has to do is end up at a couple of superspreader events and then it becomes the predominantly circulating strain. This is a phenomenon called “Founder Effect.” (7/n)
Then it becomes the predominant variant not necessarily because it is so much better at infecting, but because that is what is currently circulating. But the media says “this new mutant spreads more easily” without any evidence whatsoever. (8/n)
And this type of information makes the rounds very quickly, particularly by headline, because it is alarming and sensationalist. (9/10)
Bottom line: To prove that this variant spreads more easily you would have to do detailed case tracing and that has not been done. It’s all speculation. (end)
Thanks, @alandove
Thanks, @alandove
