Read on Twitter
GEORGIA UPDATE (TOTAL votes 12/20) Total Votes: 1,436,366 (+99,778)
Percent of registered voters: 18.8%
(County breakdown and analysis in thread).
12/20 COUNTY TURNOUT BREAKDOWN (as % of reg. voters)
Statewide: 18.8%
DeKalb: 22.3%
Cobb: 19.4%
Fulton: 21.3%
Clayton: 17.0%
Gwinnett: 18.8%
Chatham: 13.6%
Muscogee: 14.7%
Columbia: 19.8%
Houston: 19.1%
Baldwin: 10.5%
Fayette: 19.1%
Hall: 18.4%
Cherokee: 18.9%
Forsyth: 19.9%
Statewide: 18.8%
DeKalb: 22.3%
Cobb: 19.4%
Fulton: 21.3%
Clayton: 17.0%
Gwinnett: 18.8%
Chatham: 13.6%
Muscogee: 14.7%
Columbia: 19.8%
Houston: 19.1%
Baldwin: 10.5%
Fayette: 19.1%
Hall: 18.4%
Cherokee: 18.9%
Forsyth: 19.9%
COUNTY TURNOUT RATES FOR 12/19 (for comparison)
State Average: 17.5%
DeKalb: 20.5%
Cobb: 17.4%
Fulton: 18.5%
Clayton: 14.3%
Gwinnett: 16.7%
Chatham: 12.9%
Muscogee: 13.2%
Columbia: 19.8%
Houston: 17.8%
Baldwin: 6.8%
Fayette: 20.2%
Hall: 17.7%
Cherokee: 18.9%
Forsyth: 19.9%
State Average: 17.5%
DeKalb: 20.5%
Cobb: 17.4%
Fulton: 18.5%
Clayton: 14.3%
Gwinnett: 16.7%
Chatham: 12.9%
Muscogee: 13.2%
Columbia: 19.8%
Houston: 17.8%
Baldwin: 6.8%
Fayette: 20.2%
Hall: 17.7%
Cherokee: 18.9%
Forsyth: 19.9%
Not all counties had early voting yesterday. Heavily Democratic ones like Clayton, DeKalb, and Fulton, however, definitely did. The spikes relative to statewide average are likely a result of this. But it means turnout was decent for Democrats. Leaves Rs w/ more to do.
Again, looking at the spikes in heavily Black counties like Clayton, we can pretty much conclude that Black turnout will be up from November, maybe by around 2% in terms of electorate share (probably 29-30% compared to 27.7 then). Trouble is, non-college whites aren't voting.
We know non-college whites aren't voting because Hall's turnout is below average compared to counties like Forsyth and Fayette (GOP counties with high education rates). This is basically an electorate in which college+ whites and Black voters are turning out more...like midterms.
This leaves Rs with a bit more work to do than before. If you are a Republican running in Georgia, you cannot win an election in which Hall and Cherokee are below or at average while Fulton is wildly above statewide average. Gwinnett and Cobb also saw big spikes (good for Ds)
Anyways, the electorate composition will change. They have six weekdays left to turn it around. But the last day of EV is generally more Democratic, as are weekends, so it's not as if Democrats have no more room to grow either.
Early voting ends on 12/31. Mail is heavily D.
Early voting ends on 12/31. Mail is heavily D.
With Gwinnett and Cobb's turnout spiking today, Democrats have begun to address their biggest weaknesses as well. The factor that helps Rs is that the electorate will be older. Will that be enough to save them? No clue yet.
Underlying signs here suggest there are some serious red flags here the GOP needs to address ASAP.
Again, I have to say: they can *easily* win this. But I'm not going to pretend it's all fine for them right now. It's not, and there's a reason Pence is campaigning in the exurbs.
Again, I have to say: they can *easily* win this. But I'm not going to pretend it's all fine for them right now. It's not, and there's a reason Pence is campaigning in the exurbs.
Special thanks to @ADincgor for getting me the data from the GA SOS website. The website is having some issues right now, so the racial breakdown (+ VBM/EV splits) won't be here as a result, unfortunately, and it's why the Elect Project hasn't updated.
(I posted a draft thread earlier. Oops. This is the corrected one).
