Since fish may cause a No Deal Brexit today (or may be fish-fingered for blame), I have crunched stats now in the public domain. The row, in a cockle-shell, comes down to fish worth Euros 227m a year plus the length of transition - 3 yrs or 7 – and what if anything follows. 1/9

The Guardian reports the figs on the table. UK boats catch E850m of fish a year in UK 200 mile zone and EU boats E650m – 56.6% and 43.4% shares. These are v close to stats that I tweeted recently - and far removed from the fantasies of Brexiteers. 2/9 https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/20/latest-brexit-offer-selling-eu-fishing-communities-down-the-river-barnier-told

The Guardian says the EU has offered a 25% cut in it catch in UK waters over 7 years (and wants guarantees after that); Le Monde says the EU has only offered a 20% cut. Britain wants a 60% cut over 3 years and no guarantees of any continuing access to UK water after 2023. 3/9

Taking the Guardian’s report of an EU-offer of a 25% cut…
Shares of catches in UK waters would change over 7 years until the UK took 67.5% and the EU took 32.5%.
The UK wants a 3- year transition down to an 82.7%-17.3% split.
Then all bets would be off. 4/9

In sum…
The EU offer would cut its catch to E487m.
The UK proposal would cut the EU catch to E260m.
The difference is E 227m (not big enough for the side of a bus)..
But there is a 4-year gap in transition periods and the UK wants no guarantees for EU boats after 2023.
5/9

The 82.7% of the catch demanded by the UK would, put many EU boats, or entire local fleets, out of business. This is, I believe, a politically-driven, dog-fish-in-a- manger attitude.
The UK already takes 80% or so of the most prized species – cod, haddock, langoustines. 6/9

An increase for UK boats for other species – hake, sole, whiting – is definitely justified. But to reach an 80% overall catch, we’d have to catch vast amounts of stuff we have never much bothered with (saithe, horse-mackerel etc) 7/9

Even dividing the Brussels-offered 25% cut between the EU fleets – and many different species and a dozen sea areas - would be a nightmare. As The Guardian reports, EU fishermen are furious that Brussels has offered so much.
8/9

Conclusion: a fisheries deal is within reach but only if UKG is prepared to face down the inflated expectations of Brexiteers.
9/9