Thread by @alexlaveryLFC, THE STATS BEHIND SOLSKJAER VS LAMPARD VS ARTETA

THE STATS BEHIND SOLSKJAER VS LAMPARD VS ARTETA – Who’s doing the best job? (A Thread)

(All data from Transfermarkt)

#MUFC #AFC #CFC

The last three years have seen three of England’s biggest clubs employ former players as new managers – Ole Gunnar Solskjaer at Manchester United, Frank Lampard at Chelsea, and Mikel Arteta at Arsenal.

Ever since, fans of these clubs have argued endlessly about which returning manager has done the best job, so I’ve broken down the stats to determine which of the three really does reign supreme – and which, if any, of them have actually improved the side that they took over.

To do this, I’ve examined which manager has the most points-per-game (PPG), the best win-rate percentage (%WR), the most goals-scored-per-game (GSPG), the fewest goals conceded-per-game (GCPG), and the best goal-difference-per-game (GDPG) since arriving at their club.

For each manager/club, I’ve then compared these stats with a sample of the exact same metrics from the 38 games preceding their arrival to see if there has been any improvement. The stats used are strictly from the Premier League – to ensure fairness and consistency.

SOLSKJAER AT UNITED

The Norwegian has had the longest tenure of the three, having joined during the 2018/19 season. Following a top 4 finish last season and currently sat highest of the three clubs in the table – these are how United’s stats before and during Ole’s tenure look:

- Before Ole

38G, 21W, 7D, 12L, 61GS, 40GC
1.84PPG, 55.26%WR, 1.61GSPG, 1.05GCPG, +0.56GDPG

- Since Ole

71G, 37W, 18D, 16L, 124GS, 78GC
1.82PPG, 52.11%WR, 1.75GSPG, 1.1GCPG, +0.65GDPG

- Difference since Ole

-0.02PPG, -3.15%WR, +0.14GSPG, +0.05GCPG, +0.09GDPG

As you can see, so far, Solskjaer does not appear to have improved Manchester United overall. His team wins around 3% fewer games, scores a miniscule 0.02PPG less and concedes 0.05 more goals per game than they did prior to hiring him.

They are, however, more prolific – scoring 0.14 more goals per game on average than they did before, which has contributed to a 0.1 GDPG improvement. This could be due to the purchase of the brilliant Fernandes, as well as the development of stars such as Rashford and Greenwood.

LAMPARD AT CHELSEA

Chelsea’s all-time top scorer swapped boots for suits when he signed as manager at the start of the 2019/20 season. After leading his side to 4th place last year, and having an expensive summer, these are how Chelsea’s stats look before, and since his arrival.

- Before Lampard

38G, 21W, 9D, 8L, 63GS, 39GA
1.89PPG, 55.26%WR, 1.66GSPG, 1.03GCPG, +0.63GDPG

- Since Lampard

51G, 26W, 10D, 15L, 95GS, 68GC
1.73PPG, 50.98%WR, 1.86GSPG, 1.33GCPG, +0.53GDPG

- Difference since Lampard

-0.16PPG, -4.28%WR, +0.2GSPG, +0.3GCPG, -0.1GDPG

Similarly to Solskjaer – Lampard seems to have failed to upgrade his Chelsea side so far. Since his arrival, his Chelsea side have earned 0.16PPG less, seen a 4% reduction in win-rate, and conceded significantly more goals – leading to a 0.1GDPG regression.

Lampard has, however, made his side more exciting. Despite conceding 0.3 goals-per-game more, they also score 0.2 more goals every game as well. Over a season, this means Chelsea concede an extra 11.4 goals, while scoring an extra 7.6 – making them far more fun for the neutrals!

ARTETA AT ARSENAL

Of the three, Arteta easily has the toughest job: steadying a free-falling Arsenal. An 8th place finish last season was unremarkable but promising, however with the Gunners now enduring their worst league start in decades – the stats are ugly for the Spaniard.

- Before Arteta

38G, 17W, 10D, 11L, 64GS, 48GC
1.61PPG, 44.74%WR, 1.68GSPG, 1.26GCPG, +0.42GDPG

- Since Arteta

34G, 13W, 8D, 13L, 44GS, 39GC
1.38PPG, 38.23%WR, 1.29GSPG, 1.15GCPG, +0.14GDPG

- Difference since Arteta

-0.23PPG, -6.51%WR, -0.39GSPG, -0.11GCPG, -0.28GDPG

It isn’t a shock that Arteta has the worst stats, but but his side have also regressed – scoring 0.23PPG less, winning 6.51% less of his games, and scoring a significant 0.39 goals per game less than the 38 games before his arrival – which averages out 14.82 goals per season.

The one statistical positive to take from Arteta’s time in North London has been that he has shored up Arsenal’s defence – with the signings of players such as Gabriel and Partey leading to his side conceding 0.11 goals per game less than they did before.

COMPARISONS

Solskjaer, Lampard and Arteta have all failed to improve their sides – with each manager averaging fewer wins and points-per-game than they did on average in the 38 games before each of their arrival. In order, here’s how they look when ranked from best to worst:

RAW STATS

United under Ole – 1.82PPG, 52.11%WR
Chelsea under Lampard – 1.73PPG, 50.98%WR
Arsenal under Arteta – 1.38PPG, 38.23%WR

SINCE BEING HIRED

United since Ole - -0.02PPG, -3.15%WR
Chelsea since Lampard - -0.16PPG, -4.28%WR
Arsenal since Arteta - -0.23PPG, -6.51%WR

Although the bar seems to be low, it’s Solskjaer that has done the best job so far, followed by Lampard, and then followed by Arteta. Although, it is interesting to note that Lampard is twice as close to Arteta as he is to Solskjaer – which is ominous for Chelsea fans.

Of course, these stats don’t take every factor into account – for example, it’s easier to improve a Chelsea team when you have almost £200m to spend than to improve an Arsenal team with less than half of that.

To account for this, I’ve totalled each manager’s net spend, as well as their total points since being appointed, and calculated each manager’s points-per-million (PPM) total – to see how well each is doing with the budget that they have:

United under Solskjaer – 122 total points, 138.55m net spend, 1.76PPM
Arsenal under Arteta – 47 points, 60.62m net spend, 0.78PPM
Chelsea under Lampard – 88 points, 170.91m net spend, 0.51PPM

Once again, Solskjaer comes out on top, and this time by a significant margin – having been in his role for the longest, but having balanced his spending over the course of 4 transfer windows and earned the points to justify his expenditure far more than his competitors.

With this metric, Arteta moves ahead of Lampard, having only spent big on Gabriel and Partey, while Chelsea had a huge summer – spending significantly on Havertz, Werner, Chilwell and Ziyech – but have failed to really push on since doing so as of yet.

CONCLUSIONS

In every significant metric, it seems the Solskjaer stands out among the three managers, with Lampard achieving the second best results, but falling behind Arteta when considering the expenditure of the two managers alongside the results themselves.

However, the most significant takeaway here is that none of the three managers have actually managed to improve their side – with each team performing worse in win percentage and PPG than they had in the previous 38 games.

So to answer the question - Solskjaer is doing the best job of the three, but he is effectively the best of three evils – as his United side have simply regressed a little less than the other two teams.

If you've managed to get all the way to here, thanks so much for reading! As always, any likes, retweets and follows are greatly appreciated - I spend a lot of time on these and I'd love for as many people to read them as possible!

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