SHORT THREAD: On misinformation surrounding virus evolution and COVID-19. As we move towards the phase of the pandemic where evolution can play a role in the outcomes, it is inevitable that there will be a proliferation of speculation and opinions surrounding virus evolution 1/n

This makes sense. Over short timescales, epidemic process are really all that matter. Over longer timescales, evolutionary forces become more noticeable to us and can seriously impact the course of evolution. 2/n

Where we are now, population genetic (short term) and evolutionary (longer term) process meet, and interact. This actually makes it very, very difficult indeed to make accurate predictions about what will happen. 3/n

In this information gap, there is a proliferation of conspiracy theories. And everyone feels they can speculate on evolutionary biology. So here are some rules of thumb to recognise conspiracy theories and poorly formulated ideas. 4/n

1) Anyone who speaks with absolute certainty about the future course of evolution of the virus, has not worked on virus evolution before. You may safely ignore what they are saying. We can rule some things out, predict some likely paths, but not perfectly predict outcomes. 5/n

2) Anyone who speaks of evolution having a goal, e.g. that the virus will 'inevitably' or 'naturally' move in a particular direction, does not understand evolutionary biology. 6/n

examples? a) the virus will evolve naturally to become more harmless. This is a common one, and is absolutely not predicted by evolutionary theory. 7/n

b) the virus will evolve to overcome lockdowns. This is really, really unlikely, close to impossible. Ignore this one (will explain more in future). 8/n

c) Lockdowns interfere with the natural course of evolution. This makes no sense. See a) and b). 9/n

3) In science, 'past performance is no guarantee of future performance', as with the stockmarket. However, it might be an idea to ignore voices that have been consistently wrong in their predictions thus far on COVID-19. 10/n