Read on Twitter
2020 is not over yet!
- a new strain of covid was discovered in the UK, named VUI-2020/12/01
- up to 70% more transmissible
- the severity of measures has to go up correspondingly
- no evidence yet that vaccines won't work
- no evidence that it changes mortality either way
- a new strain of covid was discovered in the UK, named VUI-2020/12/01
- up to 70% more transmissible
- the severity of measures has to go up correspondingly
- no evidence yet that vaccines won't work
- no evidence that it changes mortality either way
However, the only reason it was detected and recognised as more transmissible is advanced surveillance over strains and prevalence. We can only wonder what happens in less developed countries
Two charts that demonstrate why it is extremely worrying
First, it looks like the new variant quickly overtook every other variant. This can only happen if it's MUCH more transmissible, either directly (eg less viral particles needed to infect), or indirectly
First, it looks like the new variant quickly overtook every other variant. This can only happen if it's MUCH more transmissible, either directly (eg less viral particles needed to infect), or indirectly
(eg people staying asymptomatic but infectious for longer, or kids becoming more infectious). We don't know yet why this is happening, but it's a sign bad enough that South-East and London went into de-facto lockdown (tier 4 restrictions) today
Second, places where that strain was prevalent earlier were less responsive to lockdown measures. In other words, cases haven't dropped as much as in other areas during autumn lockdown. Here is Kent vs Yorkshire. Much less of a drop in Kent
Again, it's not clear how much this new strain contributed to this effect, and we won't know until much more research is done. However, it doesn't look good at all
A very nice thread on the same topic with two alternative hypothesis (which the author considers less plausible) https://twitter.com/ballouxfrancois/status/1340553044031844354
