Thread:
Why aren't facemasks and "lockdowns" working in California?

Because they aren't a means to Resolution..they are MITIGATION. It's proportional. Community prevalence has increased to the point that their capacity to help is overwhelmed.
1/x

True "Stay-At-Home" is, prctically-speaking, IMPOSSIBLE.
Essential work (healthcare, utilities, food growing/delivery/sale) *must* continue. Even if we wanted everyone to shelter-in-place, it cannot be done - people HAVE TO go out.
2/×

At "controlled" levels of community infection, an average citizen - forced to go out - might be exposed for ten minutes throughout their day if everything is left open.
With restrictions, that goes down to five minutes.
3/×

Everyone wearing facemasks takes exposure down to two minutes.

With a modest increase in the number of infected people circulating (say 2.5X),those exppsure periods are now
25 minutes (no restrictions)
12.5 minutes ("lockdown")
5 minutes (lockdown + mask)
4/×

Essentially, 2.5X community prevalence means that lockdowns and facemasks are *practically* useless.
THEY STILL HELP - just not enough anymore.

In my opinion, the key is thus reducing community prevalence.

5/×

How do we reduce prevalence?
1. Keep mitigating - minimize circulation and stress facemask use
2. Find and isolate - test, test, test (stronger contact-tracing, improved tests, cluster and outbreak-busting, sewage sampling, home testing)
3. Stay Home (particularly if ill)
6/×

4. Encourage community immunity (*Vaccinate*, controlled exposure - some call it 'focussed protection', but that’s what it is)
5. Potentially - prophylaxis [e.g. Vitamin D (very promising), some say Hydroxychloroquine, Zinc, or Invermectin]
6. DO NOT ALLOW ANTIGENIC DRIFT

7/×

That last point: We need to hammer this crisis HARD. Everything we do is useless if we allow this virus to spread while we bicker. It *will* mutate - eventually beyond our ability to control it.
THE MOST IMPORTANT THING WE CAN DO is to come together and battle this as a team.
End