Chatting with some folks about bonds rebal EOY. Interesting topic. Warning: I am not a bonds person.
From what I do know, net net the expectation is HFs are still lacking in the rebal department, and are waiting on stim to balance out for quarterly obligations. cred @GiacobbeDan

Est in early Dec around $300 billion outstanding obligations. That said, I find it pretty unlikely that in the next week:
1) no HFs started rebal early (flexibility)
2) everyone is going to rush through the door at once
3) SPY's EOY drift up/Santa rally + stim bullish @ equity

That the market will significantly dive, especially on low volume. That said, it might be interesting to do the following positioning:

1) Long TLT - My hunch in this case is the bonds/equity correlation will just temporarily breakdown, and SPY and TLT might *both* go up. Clearly some rebal will wait for stim to happen or just dispersively go through if stim doesn't.

2) Short IWM - if stim doesn't happen, small caps which have been rallying since Nov are the first on the chopping block IMO. Also the most exposure to no re-stim in general, + smaller float = larger moves

3) Interestingly, I think SPY might become gamma pinned due to dispersion trades on the index with Tesla. I don't think Tesla is going to die (yet at least), but a common arb with the massive ivol with SPY will be to short Tesla calls long SPY calls

This could help gamma pin SPY substantially until EOY too.