The largest @Omen_eth presidential market with a few $ million in open interest will resolve tomorrow. It will quite likely result in the largest "blockchain court case" and some are obviously speculating that the mechanism will fail to resolve to a Biden win. https://twitter.com/OmenMarkets/status/1340440527486017544

Reminder: Omen markets are resolved primarily in a simple staking game via @RealityEth - anyone can claim an answer but always needs to double the previous stake. This game runs until for 24h no new answer is posted or the arbitration fee ~50ETH is paid by someone.

In this case, the @Kleros_io court will decide. From all jurors in the general court ( http://klerosboard.com/ ) 500 slots will be randomly drawn (weighted by PNK amount staked). Those will ultimately decide. After the election ended and Biden was declared winner still >$100k...

have been put on Trump. It was not always clear whether those predictions assumed somehow events would change or simply speculating that the resolution process would in some form fail.

So the market ended yesterday and is now in the resolution process. The first layer is @RealityEth - …https://bafybeieixpg6uwbgbtq7namfui3nvbmoss7pqfx24m4cbkd3umxhdszl64.ipfs.dweb.link/app/#!/question/0x4a34990e23a9aafff10733cca57777ec969f3a748f1ef5489dd959b9dfd650b8

Most markets resolve by just someone posting the answer and no once challenging it for 24h.

In this question, we have now already seen many many rounds quite quickly - each time at least doubling the bond from initially 0.01 ETH to a few ETH and in the last rounds: 5ETH - 10ETH - 20ETH and now in the last set 42ETH on "yes".

To continue this game someone would need to bond 82 ETH within the next 14h on "NO" or "invalid". Alternatively at any time - for a fixed cost of 41ETH the process is decided by arbitration from @Kleros_io

If you trigger arbitration you will not get any direct advantage from that - you don't get any payout, regardless of how the arbitration is decided - you just have to pay the fee. So it only makes sense if you have a stake otherwise in the outcome.

This is to some extent a coordination/ tragedy of the common problem. While many might be interested in arbitration (if the leading outcome is not the one that benefits you) but everyone hopes the others will pay. A pooling scheme might be the logical consequence.

And exactly that happened here and likely the 41 eth to trigger arbitration will be reached soon: https://twitter.com/aegis_eth/status/1340742461501677570

Alright, continuing the coverage.
As expected the Aegis DAO collected the funds:
https://client.aragon.org/#/aegis2/0xe9d342fb5f04683c85ee64c5c682969c0b26b056/
and arbitration was called:

Take a moment to appreciate Ethereums composability:
Around @gnosisPM conditional token framework @Omen_eth was build, run by @Dxdao_, based on @daostack, served via @ensdomains. Using @RealityEth as oracle and now an @AragonProject activist DAO calls @Kleros_io for arbitration.

The story goes on: Right now 500 slots are drawn that will ultimately make the decision. Your address can be drawn multiple times and your chances are proportional by the PNK staked. Out of the ~500m circulating PNK roughly 100m are staked.

You can find statistics about Kleros in general and the specific case here:
http://klerosboard.com/dispute/?id=532 
If you are dawn the case will pop up in your juror dashboard: https://court.kleros.io/ 

Voting will start in 3 days: during this time we can imagine all tricks in the book being pulled to influence the outcome in one or the other direction. Here is a video making the case for the invalid side.

You may ask what incentive Jurors may have to vote in what way and I shared my thoughts on it below this: https://twitter.com/yaron_velner/status/1341341035834855427?s=20