/THREAD #DHember is a dumb name, but is "Derrick Henry in December" a real thing? Well... maybe

Henry's numbers are better in December, but to buy in, there has to be a *reason* he'd be better. So I asked the truthers...

According to truthers, defenses are tired, weather is cold, and tackling this big, bad man hurts and is tougher than earlier in season

Ignoring that NFL defenders are world-caliber athletes and not big wimps, let's evaluate each claim

Henry's Career Missed/Broken Tackle Splits:

Pre-December: 18.7%
December-On: 18.4%

Lazy analysis would stop here, laugh at DHember people, and say "Henry hasn't even done what your narrative says he should!"

But RB stats are noisy, and player-level RB splits are irrelevant, so let's look deeper at the reasons behind the narrative and see if it *could* be a thing that's just masked by noise in his splits.

CLAIM 1: RBs Do Better in Cold (TRUE)

We've known this is true

Yards per Carry by Temperature, All RBs, Since 2000
Sub-40°: 4.25
Above-80°: 4.10

Not huge, but it's there. For it to matter more for DH than other RBs, we need to see if defenders actually perform worse when tired

CLAIM 2: Tired Defenders Miss More Tackles (SEMI-TRUE)

Credit @Paydirt_DFS for this idea https://twitter.com/Paydirt_DFS/status/1338686657181011970?s=20

Missed/Broken Tackles Against, All Defenses, 2019
Pre-December: 16.90%
December-On: 16.97%

On average, defenses DO NOT miss more tackles in December as attrition wears.

But what if we separate the most and least tired defenses? I'm defining as the 10 defenses with the most (and least) pre-December rush attempts faced

Missed/Broken Tackles Against, Most Tired Defenses, 2019
Pre-December: 15.0%
December-On: 18.2%

Missed/Broken Tackles Against, Least Tired Defenses, 2019
Pre-December: 17.4%
December-On: 15.9%

I only have 2019 data, so small sample, but there may be something here!

It's still something of a stretch to go from "tired defenses may miss more tackles" to "Derrick Henry can wear a defense out and make them miss more tackles, especially later in the season when they're already a bit tired", but it's at least plausible.

If he's facing a 'not-tired' defense, does the logic still hold? IDK, if you're a truther please (legitimately) tell me why it should. At the very least, Henry in December vs. a tired defense (as he faces this week) very well could be a thing.

This also has application beyond Henry, since other RBs may be able to take advantage of these 'most tired' defense.

The Most Tired 2020 Defenses and their Week 15 RB opponents:

DAL-Mostert
JAC-BAL
HOU-Taylor
DET-Henry
PHI-Drake
NYJ-Akers
CHI-Cook
CIN-Conner
DEN-BUF
NE-MIA

It also matters if the Titans *believe* the narrative and run more in December. Turns out, they might.

Since Vrabel took over in 2018, accounting for context and variance, TEN's Run/Pass mix has been 1.5% more running than passing in December, and 2.5% more in the red zone.

CONCLUSION
#DHember is a dumb name, but there is a least some evidence to suggest Henry should legitimately be expected to perform better in December... or at least enough that we can't dismiss it outright. Not up to his noisy YPC split, but at least to some extent.

THE BLITZ projects Henry insanely well this week, way more than I'm comfortable seeing, even before accounting for narrative and that he faces a 'tired defense'. Narrative or not, he's a strong probability play.