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Just want to point out vis a vis The Tale of the Dithery Premier:this is what Manitoba looks like after belated lockdown. With great effort they got R down to 0.8-0.9.
It’s great to see their incidence declining, but note that at R 0.9 you’re only getting a 10% reduction in your 5-7 day incident cases. So with the lockdown they’ve managed to push incidence down to the level THAT OVERFLOWED THEIR ICUS IN THE FIRST PLACE.
Their ICUs and hospitals were already pretty full when they locked down. So ill people are still coming, and coming into health systems that are full and have no room for them. (Notice how many media reports there are of healthcare workers being told not to talk?)
That’s not just elsewhere. That’s here in Canada too. It’s because ugly stuff is happening in hospitals.
Anyway, the cute little “we’ll send the fire department to put out the fire starting on Boxing Day”
is what the economists call a “revealed preference”.
Anyway, the cute little “we’ll send the fire department to put out the fire starting on Boxing Day”
is what the economists call a “revealed preference”.
Yes, our current govt really is more focussed on Christmas season retail profits than Ontarians dying and hospitals collapsing.
Note that giving the current epidemic a few more serial intervals to grow before intervening...
Note that giving the current epidemic a few more serial intervals to grow before intervening...
Makes actions they do take less effective, and predictably kill more people. Inasmuch as our R estimate for Ontario is 1.2 and we now have saturation of ICUs impacting quality of care (really) every wasted day kills more people in a low-grade exponential way.
