This 'new strain' of #COVID19 that apparently 'spreads more quickly'... Are we sure it's not simply that social distancing complience is crumbling, due to lack of trust in the government and collective exhaustion?

Without controls, we know that #COVID19 can spread like wildfire. Even strict measures - like Tier 3 - aren't enough to keep it under control. Small changes in behaviour, magnified across the population, could lead to apparently dramatic changes in infectivity.

There's a strong tendency to attribute changes in infectivity &/or prognosis to biological differences (such as 'emergence of a new strain'). This is often 'supported' by post-hoc explanations around 'cell binding' etc. But don't underestimate behaviour &/or social changes!

Politically, a 'new strain' is a much better excuse for a massive policy U-turn than admitting 'we got it wrong (again), we didn't listen to the experts (again), and now we're having to backtrack (again)'. #Tier4 #Lockdown3 #ChristmasIsCancelled

PS I also suspect that the huge celebration and relief at the arrival of the vaccine may have backfired, with many (especially younger) people relaxing before large-scale roll-out, thinking that the job is (almost) done. #Tier4 #Lockdown3 #ChristmasIsCancelled

Governments across Europe are facing the same problems with controlling the spread of #COVID19 due to social distancing fatigue and weakening trust.

Except in the UK where it's due to a 'new strain'...

#Tier4 #Lockdown3

I'm not saying there isn't a 'new strain' (there is!). And I'm not saying it's not 'more infective' (it might be). But I KNOW it would be EXTREMELY challenging to estimate its impact on the overall infectivity, and separate from behavioural and social changes.