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#swfc Lots to unpack from Tony Pulis' pre-match press conference yesterday.
First up:
Can we make up the 7 point gap to safety?
tl;dr An at best 1 in 5 chance of doing so, so more unlikely than Keir Starmer being the next PM according to the bookies.
First up:
Can we make up the 7 point gap to safety?
tl;dr An at best 1 in 5 chance of doing so, so more unlikely than Keir Starmer being the next PM according to the bookies.
Pulis: "People are saying we are 7 poins off [safety] with 27 games to go, but in a 3-game week in the Championship, you win three games you can pick up 9 points and all of a sudden the season flips. There's more than enough room [to] get out of the trouble we are in."
We're 24th after 19 matches and have won 15 points, which is 9 points due to the deduction.
That leaves us 7 points off Forest in 21st and in safety.
It's interesting, then to see how teams in 24th after 19 matches have done for the rest of the season historically.
That leaves us 7 points off Forest in 21st and in safety.
It's interesting, then to see how teams in 24th after 19 matches have done for the rest of the season historically.
In the previous 22 seasons the teams in 24th after 19 matches ultimately ended up relegated 17 times - more than 3 out of 4. Damning odds.
How does the plight of those 22 teams compare to ours then?
How much catching up did they have to do?
How does the plight of those 22 teams compare to ours then?
How much catching up did they have to do?
On average 6 points and for half of the 22 teams they had between 4 and 8 points to catch up.
None of the teams with 7 points or more to catch up ultimately survived:
None of the teams with 7 points or more to catch up ultimately survived:
Not exactly the precedent we were looking for.
So let's flip it:
What's the best catching up a team in 24th has done from match 20 and the rest of the season?
So let's flip it:
What's the best catching up a team in 24th has done from match 20 and the rest of the season?
Even prematurely celebrating Petersborough in 12/13, despite Play-Offs form for the remainder, ultimately fell short as did Huddersfield 00/01 despite upper midtable form for the remainder of the season:
All speculation and historical precedence, of course. A prognosis isn't a prediction and certainly not a determination of what will happen.
Half the 22 teams previously finishing 21st finished on 47 to 54 points, so with us on 9 points, we would need to win at least 38, maybe 45 and probably around 41 points in our last 27 matches.
In wins, draws, losses terms this is the likely record we need for survival here on in depending on how many points the teams around up end up on:
Low:
W9 D11 L7, 38 points
Median:
W10 D11 L6, 41 points
High:
W11 D12 L4, 45 points
Low:
W9 D11 L7, 38 points
Median:
W10 D11 L6, 41 points
High:
W11 D12 L4, 45 points
Just 3 of the 22 teams in 24th after 19 matches in previous seasons managed a record of 38 points or better in the last 27 matches of the season and only Petersborough - who were still relegated - managed 41 points, while no one managed the high point of 45 points.
So it's a very tall order for us, certainly:
We're looking at hitting form that would normally see us finish around 9th if sustained over a full season of 46 matches.
We're looking at hitting form that would normally see us finish around 9th if sustained over a full season of 46 matches.
It's also why models have us as heavy favourites for relegation:
@FiveThirtyEight's model ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/) has a relegation likelihood of 75% (odds 1/3, 1.33), up from 52% (odds ~evens, 1.92) when Pulis was appointed (see second image)
@FiveThirtyEight's model ( https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/championship/) has a relegation likelihood of 75% (odds 1/3, 1.33), up from 52% (odds ~evens, 1.92) when Pulis was appointed (see second image)
@chuffymcvasov's model ( https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Epg3NVzXYAIvHcM?format=jpg&name=large) has our likelihood of relegation at 80% (odds 1/4, 1.25)
Finally the bookies generally have us around that mark too, with their odds implying a relegation likelihood 73% to 84% (with their margin included):
So that's a roughly 20%, 1 in 5, chance of us avoiding relegation according to models and bookies.
So those with money on the line think we're more likely to be relegated than Keir Starmer is of being the next Prime Minister of the UK, but slightly less likely than an extension to the Brexit transition period after January 1.
Make of that what you will :-)
Make of that what you will :-)
