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My @ConHome piece on the Brexit talks. I've long thought that the risk of no deal was under-priced because the concessions necessary to get a deal would be politically risky for Boris Johnson. But at this point a deal is more likely than not. /1 https://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2020/12/david-gauke-whether-theres-a-deal-or-not-brexit-will-still-not-be-done.html
Johnson has clearly moved on LPF (see Lord Frost's July tweet) . Obvious nonsense to argue that the threat of tariffs & quotas in future is an economic risk we cannot accept but tariffs & quotas now would be 'wonderful' & 'we'd prosper mightily'. /2 https://twitter.com/DavidGHFrost/status/1276158485743439873?s=20
And the argument that zero tariffs/quotas being dependent on complying with certain conditions is an attack on sovereignty is also nonsense. You could never sign any trade deal or be a member of the WTO if that was the case. How you use your sovereignty still has consequences. /3
The question has always been whether the PM really wanted a deal. No one could've predicted with great confidence because it's not clear that the PM knew himself. It now looks like he's decided he wants a deal but he's left it very late. Things can still go wrong. /4
But he must think he can still sell a deal to sceptical backbenchers. Why? Less pressure to abandon Covid restrictions (surely not credible to argue against them at this point), not much time for scrutiny plus, maybe, the prospect of a US mini-deal which his MPs would love. /5
Many Brexiteers don't just want to leave the EU institutions but also re-orientate the country towards the rest of the world & a different economic model. Johnson will be able to say that this deal enables us to do that in future. /6
Meanwhile, many of us will point out that, even with a deal, it is very thin. Much more friction in our EU trade. On rules of origin or services, say, nothing there. The focus on sovereignty has meant we haven't got the comprehensive deal we needed. /7
So even if a deal is reached (not inevitable), we move on to a debate about re-orientating ourselves away from the EU versus a closer, more aligned relationship. Wrangling about our relationship with the EU won't end. Merry Christmas! /END
