Read on Twitter
The Sydney Beaches cluster is growing. This
is a great example of why it is overly simplistic for anti-lockdown proponents to rail against mandatory Covid-19 suppression strategies. If people aren't convinced they are safe, they voluntarily lockdown. And what's more.. (1/n) https://twitter.com/realCarrickRyan/status/1339867555331153920
is a great example of why it is overly simplistic for anti-lockdown proponents to rail against mandatory Covid-19 suppression strategies. If people aren't convinced they are safe, they voluntarily lockdown. And what's more.. (1/n) https://twitter.com/realCarrickRyan/status/1339867555331153920
The October IMF Report on economic impacts of lockdowns demonstrated that when there is a high risk of virus in the community (or perceived risk), the effects of voluntary social distancing on mobility are *as large* as those of the mandatory lockdown in wealthy nations (2/n)
Furthermore, that rising daily Covid-19 cases causes a dramatic reduction in mobility akin or even worse than a mandatory lockdown (3/n)
And this is crucial to responding to anti-lockdown proponents - the analysis also showed that lifting restrictions early in order to kickstart the economy fails, because *voluntary* social distancing remains if people are not convinced they are safe (from the Conclusion) (4/n)
Because if you want a "V-shaped" economic recovery, such as has been recognised for Aotearoa New Zealand this quarter (see Figure below), a short, sharp lockdown that squashes the coronavirus curve is best (5/n) https://twitter.com/DrJinRussell/status/1339622779495174144?s=20
The October IMF Report can be found here (6/n) https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi5kLHHwdntAhWvxzgGHVcrBrQQFjAEegQIARAC&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.imf.org%2F-%2Fmedia%2FFiles%2FPublications%2FWEO%2F2020%2FOctober%2FEnglish%2Fch2.ashx&usg=AOvVaw0u4n9vHxO5FCs5X-GaKpIT
I'm often asked 2 questions when I challenge anti-lockdown proponents on twitter.
1) "DoEs Th1s mEAn YoU Are PRO-locKdowN?"
The answer is, no. Of course I'm not "pro-lockdown". I am "anti-pandemic". (7/n)
1) "DoEs Th1s mEAn YoU Are PRO-locKdowN?"
The answer is, no. Of course I'm not "pro-lockdown". I am "anti-pandemic". (7/n)
Aotearoa NZ has shown twice that *early* hard suppression strategies are effective in containing, then eliminating the virus. Less desirable strategies for virus control are "lockdown yo-yo" (e.g. UK) and "too-little too-late" lengthy hard lockdown (e.g. Melbourne) (8/n)
See this paper on the epidemiology and temporal dynamics for Aotearoa New Zealand lockdown: (9/n) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(20)30225-5/fulltext
The second question is around the health impacts of lockdowns. This recently published paper in @Lancet by NZ authors describes how NZ has experienced overall less mortality during the pandemic (10/n) https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)32647-7/fulltext
Yes, the NZ lockdowns have been psychologically challenging, economic impacts (although better than elsewhere) have been unevenly distributed, hospital wait lists got behind. (11/n)
BUT we were quickly back into elective surgeries and catching up on clinics - because hospitals aren't overwhelmed by Covid-19. As is seen elsewhere where the virus is surging (very, very sadly) (12/n) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/09/us/covid-hospitals-icu-capacity.html
It's time for the NZ naysayers to pull their heads in. Of course we could've done better. But look up, look overseas, we've dodged a major bullet here. We are celebrating Christmas in under one week, live music concerts scheduled through summer, vaccines coming soon. /end
Addendum: Sydney peeps, our thoughts are with you. I have family in Sydney too. Sending you much love and with highest hopes that everyone pulls together to stamp this outbreak out quickly xox
