Thread | Relegation Battle • By the Numbers

It is plain to see that Arsenal are off to a horrific start to the 2020/21 league campaign, but should we as fans be worried about relegation? Arsenal currently sits 15th in the league, accumulating just 14 points in 13 games. (1/10)

This constitutes clubs worst start in the history of Premier League play. Being only 5 points clear of the relegation spots currently, panic has started to set in about the possibility of Arsenal becoming the next Leeds. (2/10)

The numbers tell a slightly more comforting story..... at least in terms of relegation. In the 20/21 league campaign Arsenal are gathering 1.07 points per match. Which would deliver the club 41 points (40.9) over the course of the season at the current pace. (3/10)

Often talked about is the Magic 40-point barrier teams must reach to stay up, and while Arsenal are on pace to eclipse that figure (barely) the numbers indicate that in most seasons teams don’t need to reach that small milestone to avoid relegation. (4/10)

Last season it took a slightly below average 35 points for Villa to stay up, accruing just .92 points per match over the league campaign.

Since the inception of the PL the team finishing in 18th has averaged a total of 37 (36.96) points - .97 points per match. (5/10)

While these figures all sound relatively close to Arsenal’s current form. The gap is wider than it seems. (6/10)

Holding a 5 point lead over teams that average less than a point per match is a sizeable, almost massive margin in that it would take teams in the relegation zone an additional 6 games to close that gap at their current paces. (7/10)

So what are the odds Arsenal gets relegated in the 20/21 season:

Below is the most recent update from 538. It shows a 3% chance that Arsenal are relegated this season. Interestingly it also shows a 4% chance that Arsenal qualifies for the Champions League. (8/10)

So for everyone who thinks UCL is an impossibility for the Gunners this season (myself included) you can take solace in knowing that there is a better chance of that than there is of us dropping out of the Premier League #COYG (9/10)