1> $SKLZ I share my convictions but I try to stay away from long discussions & arguments about the thesis mainly because it is time consuming especially when the time investment to do the DD is not uniform across the group. Every phenomenal investment started like this. https://twitter.com/taher_hassan/status/1340002201687748608
2> For $SHOP in 2017, I had seen arguments that most of their merchants are just reselling goods from AliExpress which was also true at some point. For $TWLO there was talk about $5 customers in 10s of thousands that made up their customer base. Judging them early is a fallacy.
3> $SKLZ has a very long tail of games on their platform developed by thousands of developers. The reason a lot of their revenue comes from top 5-6 games is because it follows the power curve and not a linear curve. Over time, this long tail become powerful and drives the growth
4> Skillz is not a gaming company. It is a framework that supports competitive gaming and sports and has a much much superior business model than any game developers by themselves who bear the cost of content and the burden of "innovation that works". Shopify for Games
5> The casual gaming is a very underrated sector. If you have elaborate graphics with ray tracing, but time consuming engagement levels, you won't engage every mom and pop gamer. Casual gaming has universal acceptance being bingo, solitaire, chess, tetris, bowling etc.
6> Over time, I do see the platform attracting the likes of Zynga and other game developers, just like Shopify Plus attacted the bigger merchants over time and who became a larger share of revenue than AliExpress resellers. Skillz has the potential to go beyond games into fitness
7> Infact it can drive any digital competitive endeavor. Think of Peloton and why it became so popular. At some point Skillz might cross path with Peloton with either Peloton adopting Skillz Platform SDK or competing with others adopting them. This is just an example btw.
8> Skillz is not a covid company. It was growing at a scorching rate before covid, during covid and will grow at their high projected rate or more over next several year. It requires patience to hold it just like it required patience to hold any of the other top growth stocks
9> Personally, I have never been this excited about a company and its stock since Livongo and before that Roku and even before that Twilio and Shopify. I would put them in my top category. Yes there are some concerns in Glassdoor since 2015 and despite that they have grown. I
10> have seen concerns in other top investments whenever I had made them. Infact I burnt myself before selling companies based on Glassdoor reviews and then missing out on phenomenal growth stories (Tesla is an example where team feedback & accounting concerns made me sell early)
11> For all those thinking about investing in Skillz, please do your own DD. Go through all the investor calls, interviews, S-1 filing, financials, study the platform a bit and then if you still have questions, feel free to PM me. I will be more than happy to help.
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