VAXTRAX: This is significant as it shows no acceleration in the rate of Pfizer vaccine deliveries in January vs December. To reach the target of 4 million Pfizer doses delivered by end of Q1, the rate will have to more than triple in February and March. https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1339973023894544388

And even if delivery rate can be tripled by the end of March (to 1.6 million per month), the rate will have to increase again beginning in April (to 1.8 million per month) to reach the target of 4 million Pfizer doses by the end of the year.

Yes, Moderna approval will increase our supply. So will approval of other vaccines still further down the track in the process. And, yes, the small number of Pfizer in December was a nice surprise. But unless a lot more vax comes online fast, this is going to take a long time.

During that long time, people will continue to be infected and some will die. No, this isn't a race against other countries, but speed matters, especially as we see public health messaging failing to reduce the R-naught of the second wave.

Not that crass politics are a factor, but there could be consequences if other countries -- especially the US -- can vaccinate their way out of this many months before we do. The explanations of *why* may not be all that compelling.