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A look at where we cases are in the UK as we head towards a period of relaxed restrictions at Christmas next week.
Cases are rising across the UK as a whole with the single highest day of recorded cases yesterday...
Cases are rising across the UK as a whole with the single highest day of recorded cases yesterday...
Part of that rise is due to Wales reporting a backlog of 11,000 cases, but if Wales had been reporting normally this would probably still have been our second highest date of reported cases.
I had to move my y-axis scale upwards this week which is never a good sign.
I had to move my y-axis scale upwards this week which is never a good sign.
Case numbers appear to be rising in all four UK nations. Wales is particularly bad (these cases by specimen date figures are not affected by the reporting issue) which perhaps explains why Wales is going into a strict three-week lockdown on 28th December.
To check the impact of increases in change in the numbers of tests we can divide case numbers by test numbers in order to find test positivity. Interestingly, when we do this the case rise in Northern Ireland goes away - positivity seems to be flat or falling in NI.
Zooming in on English regions we can see that cases are rising in almost all areas with the exception of Yorkshire and the Humber.
The problem isn't limited to London and the South East as is typically being reported.
The problem isn't limited to London and the South East as is typically being reported.
Just to double check - looking at test positivity suggests the same picture. The infection is spreading in almost all regions.
London clearly has by far the highest positivity rate though.
The South has overtaken the North on this front.
London clearly has by far the highest positivity rate though.
The South has overtaken the North on this front.
This diagram requires a little more explanation. This is every local authority (LA) in England. Orange dots show case rates this week and grey dots vertically above or below show the case rate for the same LA but the week before. LAs are ordered from highest to lowest rates.
The fact that almost all the Orange dots are above the grey ones suggest that cases per 100,000 people have risen almost everywhere.
There are only a small number of LAs where case rates have fallen week on week.
There are only a small number of LAs where case rates have fallen week on week.
Looking just at the LAs that have been in Tier 2 since 2nd December shows that tier 2 is not doing enough to stop the spread of infection in almost all LAs. (Almost all of the orange dots are above the grey dots).
For me this is probably the most worrying chart of all. Shows the local authorities that had been in tier 3 since 2nd December. The majority of LAs in tier three have seen rises in case rates. This suggests that tier 3 is not enough to bring cases down everywhere. #concerning
The overall picture is concerning, especially as we head towards Christmas and the easing of restrictions.
Please take care of yourselves, your loved ones and your communities and stay safe this Christmas.
Please take care of yourselves, your loved ones and your communities and stay safe this Christmas.
