1) Thoughts on secession.

2) Before 1861, the Federalists in 1814 briefly toyed with seceding from the Union over the War of 1812. (They were strongly pro-Brit). It fizzled.

3) As everyone knows, the 1861 secession briefly succeeded because it was regional.

4) But I don't think people appreciate HOW regional the Confederacy was. It not only was bound together by slavery--which was THE reason for secession (not "state's rights"---it was always the state's right to perpetuate slavery).

5) There were no fewer than three specific Constitutional articles dealing with slavery in the CSA Constitution--it was that important. The CSA Constitution even required that if a state abolished slavery it could not interfere with travelers & their slaves.

6) To appreciate the power of the Confederacy's position to secede, realize that even after secession it STILL had a "buffer zone" of MO, KY, and MO.

It was like the Iron Curtain--the Warsaw Pact countries protecting Russia.

7) This of course was why Lincoln quipped, "I'd like to have God on our side but I have to have Kentucky."

8) This regional solidarity and insulation was not new. For over three decades prior to the war, Christian ministers in the South had either been forced to support . . .

8) contd . . slavery in their messages or get out. A whole new goofball doctrine of the "Mark of Cain/Curse of Ham" was developed to turn the so-called purpose of slavery on its head. Up til then, one excuse for slavery was it was "Christianizing" the Africans. Now that was gone.

9) So by 1860, you not only had a whole region from New Mexico to Maryland that practiced slavery, but you had a religious orthodoxy that encouraged it.

10) Moreover, a propaganda war had been waged for fifty years. Anti-slave/abolitionist literature was NOT permitted.

11) Southern postmasters culled out any abolitionist newspapers or books.

12) And you wonder why the South freaked out over Lincoln's election? He would name THOUSANDS of new postmasters, many in the South who would end this.

13) The propaganda wall would break.

14) The South regionally also could prohibit all exposure of southerners to free blacks engaging in doing normal human things free people do.

(Yes, I know there were a handful--less than 1%--of free blacks in the South. They were driven out by laws as fast as possible).

15) So, for example, southern customs commissioners and other port authorities made sure NO free blacks on board merchant vessels were allowed to come ashore. People might mistake them for human.

16) Lincoln again: what would the new president do? Appoint hundreds of new customs commissioners, none of them pro-slave. So in two powerful ways right there, Lincoln threatened the entire slave "Swamp."

17) After the war, however, and especially after the advent of . . .

17) contd . . .the automobile, the regional solidarity began breaking down, finally allowing for desegregation as northerners moved in and southerners moved out.

18) I mention all this because despite the West Coast and upper East Coast, the US does NOT have the regional . . .

18) contd . . . separation or homogeneity that the South had. Even in CA, there are almost 5 million (!) Republicans vs 8 million DemoKKKrats. Perhaps 20% of most of the Northeast states are Republican. This portends to break down even further if Trump stays in the picture.

19) Trump has been steadily breaking down the color barrier & changing the politics of the urban cores . . . but slowly. If he is out for four years, who knows what the goofball Republican Party will do.

20) So, several years ago (1981, although Amazon says 1781 !!) Joel Garreau wrote a book called "The Nine Nations of North America" about the breakup of the continent into nine nations that had commonalities.

A couple of years ago, Francis Buckley wrote "American Secession."

21) It's not a new idea.

22) BUT, one of the biggest problems today is how incredibly intertwined our lame duck court and political system is.

23) The SAME dillwad spookdooker pissgibbler nano-brained judges & legislators at the federal level now dominate the states.

24) At the top, Arizona is not "that" different than, say, Delaware. With few exceptions, the so called "red" states' leadership is scarcely different than their blue cousins. Only FL, GA, SD, & TX successfully resisted the lockdowns, for example.

25) In 1815, secession failed because it was led by elites, not the mass of common people. In 1861, secession was brought about entirely by the elites. Look at the state secession conventions, where a tiny fraction of the entire population voted to seceded.

26) Southern secession was never put to a popular vote, anywhere; much less voted on with a clear explanation of the death and carnage it would cause.

27) When you look at foreign secession, such as Bengladesh, it finally succeeded after being starved by Pakistan . . .

27) contd . . . because it was physically separated by thousands of miles of India!

28) In sum, secession would be extremely difficult without total & enthusiastic support from leadership. I don't see that occurring anywhere.