Some states are lately reporting better than expected budget outlooks. Why?

States with more progressive tax structures have fared better in a recession that has left the wealthy largely unscathed. w/ @aliciaparlap @qdbui https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/upshot/pandemic-surprising-state-revenue.html

This is another pattern that pushes against the "blue-state bailout" objections of Republicans in Congress.

Here is revenue collected this year in CA, with the most progressive tax system in the country. And TX, with one of the least equitable tax systems.

Back in the spring when states drew up their budgets, many were expecting broad-based job losses more like the Great Recession.

It turns out job losses have fallen very, very heavily on the poor. And the rich are helping to prop up state budgets.

This story is especially stark in California, where the soaring stock market and IPOs are helping to drive *up* tax revenues even at a time of great pain for low-wage workers.

States are also incredibly lucky that this pandemic hit in 2020 and not, say, 2017, before SCOTUS expanded their ability to tax e-commerce.

One state that never moved to collect those taxes? Florida (which also has no income tax).

These improved budget prospects in some states don't mean that everything is fine, or that federal aid is unnecessary.

Things are still rough, just not as rough as folks feared in the spring. And local governments continue to be in deep trouble.