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/THREAD/Next up in my #2021PlayerBreakdowns Series is:
Chris Paddack, SP
San Diego #Padres
24 years old (25 on 1/8/21)
Drafted: 2015, Round 8; Pick 11 (MIA)
Let’s get started...
2020 Stat Line:
12 G
59 IP
4-5
4.73 ERA
1.22 WHIP
5.02 FIP
3.77 xFIP
3.91 SIERA
23.7 K%
4.9 BB%
18.8 K-BB%
.209 AVG
.289 BABIP
2.14 HR/9
12 G
59 IP
4-5
4.73 ERA
1.22 WHIP
5.02 FIP
3.77 xFIP
3.91 SIERA
23.7 K%
4.9 BB%
18.8 K-BB%
.209 AVG
.289 BABIP
2.14 HR/9
A year after a rookie campaign where Paddack went 9-7 w/ a 3.33 ERA, analysts were split into 2 camps:
1.) Full breakout incoming w/o an IP limit
2.) Regression incoming due to predictable arsenal & overachieving metrics
Hindsight is 20/20, but 2020 regression was certain.
1.) Full breakout incoming w/o an IP limit
2.) Regression incoming due to predictable arsenal & overachieving metrics
Hindsight is 20/20, but 2020 regression was certain.
3.33 ERA accompanied by a 3.95 FIP, 4.05 xFIP, & 3.83 SIERA in 2019.
Not to mention a .237 BABIP which was going to balance out
But the flaws were obvious:
- He surrendered too many HR
- Need for a 3rd pitch to keep hitters honest.
But no one predicted the wheels to fall off.
Not to mention a .237 BABIP which was going to balance out
But the flaws were obvious:
- He surrendered too many HR
- Need for a 3rd pitch to keep hitters honest.
But no one predicted the wheels to fall off.
2020 Plate Discipline:
SwStr: 11.1%
O-Swing: 28.6%
Z-Swing: 71.0%
O-Contact: 63.8%
Z-Contact: 83.0%
F-Strike: 66.9%
Zone: 44.8%
Hitters actually made less contact in 2020 & maintained the same SwStr%.
But they were chasing FAR less, especially above the zone.
SwStr: 11.1%
O-Swing: 28.6%
Z-Swing: 71.0%
O-Contact: 63.8%
Z-Contact: 83.0%
F-Strike: 66.9%
Zone: 44.8%
Hitters actually made less contact in 2020 & maintained the same SwStr%.
But they were chasing FAR less, especially above the zone.
This certainly lines up w/ having a predictable arsenal, especially one
w/o a true chase pitch.
F-Strike% changes depending on the source, but they ALL indicate Paddack threw far less 1st pitch strikes in 2020.
This lead to being forced into a hitters count early & often.
w/o a true chase pitch.
F-Strike% changes depending on the source, but they ALL indicate Paddack threw far less 1st pitch strikes in 2020.
This lead to being forced into a hitters count early & often.
So why chase a pitch from someone throwing nearly 90% FB/Change?
Hitters were waiting for their pitch & destroying it.
There were even rumors that Paddack was tipping his pitches, w/ manager Jayce Tingler acknowledging it as a real possibility. https://twitter.com/973thefansd/status/1298484618459414528
Hitters were waiting for their pitch & destroying it.
There were even rumors that Paddack was tipping his pitches, w/ manager Jayce Tingler acknowledging it as a real possibility. https://twitter.com/973thefansd/status/1298484618459414528
2020 Batted Ball Profile:
LD - 20.0%
GB - 47.1%
FB - 32.9%
Pull - 44.5%
Middle - 34.1%
Opp - 21.4%
Hard - 37.6%
Med - 48.6%
Soft - 13.9%
Exit Velocity - 90.9 mph
Max EV - 111.9 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
LA - 9.3°
sd(LA) - 27.5°
DHH - 16%
xwOBAcon - .413
LD - 20.0%
GB - 47.1%
FB - 32.9%
Pull - 44.5%
Middle - 34.1%
Opp - 21.4%
Hard - 37.6%
Med - 48.6%
Soft - 13.9%
Exit Velocity - 90.9 mph
Max EV - 111.9 mph
Barrel % - 11.0
LA - 9.3°
sd(LA) - 27.5°
DHH - 16%
xwOBAcon - .413
A 2-pitch arsenal leads to predictability, which leads to hard contact, which leads to HRs.
Paddack’s HR/9 jumped from 1.47 to 2.14 despite significantly raising his GB% & lowering his FB%.
DHH% jumped 6.6 points (xwOBAcon jumped 50) while his Hard% dropped 4.5 points.
Paddack’s HR/9 jumped from 1.47 to 2.14 despite significantly raising his GB% & lowering his FB%.
DHH% jumped 6.6 points (xwOBAcon jumped 50) while his Hard% dropped 4.5 points.
Those facts contradict each other, so let’s break it down
DHH% measures hard contact in a non-linear way. Meaning not all 95+ mph BBE are treated equally.
We do NOT care how hard a ball is hit into the ground, & DHH% cuts through the fog.
This explains why GB led to Hard%
DHH% measures hard contact in a non-linear way. Meaning not all 95+ mph BBE are treated equally.
We do NOT care how hard a ball is hit into the ground, & DHH% cuts through the fog.
This explains why GB
led to Hard%
So long story short, Paddack was definitely getting hit hard.
But why?
- Hitters caught up to a simplistic arsenal?
- Paddack tipping pitches?
- Poor game plan?
- Mechanical flaw?
Let’s look at his individual pitches & explore what could be the issue...
But why?
- Hitters caught up to a simplistic arsenal?
- Paddack tipping pitches?
- Poor game plan?
- Mechanical flaw?
Let’s look at his individual pitches & explore what could be the issue...
Paddack throws 4 pitches (kinda) w/ a heavy reliance on 4-Seam/Change
58.2% 4-Seam
31.0% Changeup
7.4% Curveball
3.4% Cutter
In 2020 he threw less FB in favor of the change, which seemed like a good plan.
But obviously things did not go that way.
58.2% 4-Seam
31.0% Changeup
7.4% Curveball
3.4% Cutter
In 2020 he threw less FB in favor of the change, which seemed like a good plan.
But obviously things did not go that way.
Paddack threw less FB, w/ higher% out of the zone.
This could be intentional to cut down on HR, instead of a control issue. After all his plus BB% stayed consistent.
Instead, Hard% jumped 22 points on FB & chase rate dropped 10% w/ Z-Contact way up.
This could be intentional to cut down on HR, instead of a control issue. After all his plus BB% stayed consistent.
Instead, Hard% jumped 22 points on FB & chase rate dropped 10% w/ Z-Contact way up.
Most signs point to batters simply waiting on the fastball (13.5 Barrel%) & avoiding his elite changeup, rather than control issues.
But a dip in active spin & RPM 22302170 suggest that the offering was simply less effective, lacking “ride.”
Maybe due to tinkering w/ cutter?
But a dip in active spin & RPM 2230
2170 suggest that the offering was simply less effective, lacking “ride.” Maybe due to tinkering w/ cutter?
Paddack’s fastball is an issue, maybe with or without a 3rd pitch.
A true “chase” pitch will do wonders for his longevity, but when a pitch goes from one of the most valuable pitches in the league (13.5 pVal w/ 10.2 SwStr%) to a liability (- 9.6 pVal), something is up.
A true “chase” pitch will do wonders for his longevity, but when a pitch goes from one of the most valuable pitches in the league (13.5 pVal w/ 10.2 SwStr%) to a liability (- 9.6 pVal), something is up.
Paddack may throw 58% fastballs, but his primary “weapon” is definitely the changeup.
It was the only thing to remain consistent year to year & hitters made ZERO progress attacking it.
vs 4-seam: .308 w/ .658 SLG
vs Change: .187 w/ 275 SLG
It was the only thing to remain consistent year to year & hitters made ZERO progress attacking it.
vs 4-seam: .308 w/ .658 SLG
vs Change: .187 w/ 275 SLG
Paddack took an already devastating pitch & gained more vertical drop & horizontal break (credit to @AugustineMLB for visual below)
K% - 27.4
ISO - .088
O-Swing - 43.4%
Z-Contact - 80.0%
Zone% - 45.2
SwStr% - 17.7
pVal - 9.4
K% - 27.4
ISO - .088
O-Swing - 43.4%
Z-Contact - 80.0%
Zone% - 45.2
SwStr% - 17.7
pVal - 9.4
This Vulcan 
changeup is not spectacular due to spin rate or movement (which Paddack did improve), but due to command.
He can’t succeed on this pitch alone, but it’s certainly a fantastic weapon to lean on.
But now we get to perhaps the most important issue: a third pitch...
changeup is not spectacular due to spin rate or movement (which Paddack did improve), but due to command.He can’t succeed on this pitch alone, but it’s certainly a fantastic weapon to lean on.
But now we get to perhaps the most important issue: a third pitch...
Paddack went into the 2019 offseason looking to master the curveball which he sparingly used.
Scott Lacey worked w/ him using Rapsodo & other evaluation technology.
The result led to a new him using a new “spike” curveball grip meant to offer a tighter spin & superior movement
Scott Lacey worked w/ him using Rapsodo & other evaluation technology.
The result led to a new him using a new “spike” curveball grip meant to offer a tighter spin & superior movement
The curve had impressive swing/miss highlights, but Paddack lacked confidence w/ mixed results:
Usage 10.4%7.4%
Vert Drop 60.762.6
K% 17.8%30.8%
wRC+ 90141
Whiff% 20.8%17%
SwStr 6.3%5.6%
O-Swing 24.1%21.6
Zone% 42.747.9
pVal -0.6-1.3
Usage 10.4%
7.4%Vert Drop 60.7
62.6K% 17.8%
30.8%wRC+ 90
141Whiff% 20.8%
17%SwStr 6.3%
5.6%O-Swing 24.1%
21.6Zone% 42.7
47.9pVal -0.6
-1.3
A 100% Z-Contact & 30.8 K% should tell you that Paddack needs lower his Zone%. Bury the curve for whiffs and GBs.
Just a suggestion.
The pitch does not need to be dominant, it just needs to be passable.
Last season it was not consistent. But it CAN be.
Just a suggestion.
The pitch does not need to be dominant, it just needs to be passable.
Last season it was not consistent. But it CAN be.
Paddack also spent the offseason working on a Cutter.
It’s possible to judge this pitch because he literally threw just 34 of them.
But he did achieve a 33% K rate & 57% Contact rate in limited use.
It was roughed up a bit (2B & HR), but again, limited use.
It’s possible to judge this pitch because he literally threw just 34 of them.
But he did achieve a 33% K rate & 57% Contact rate in limited use.
It was roughed up a bit (2B & HR), but again, limited use.
If Paddack can spot his cutter/slider on the hands vs LHH, he can set up his front door changeup.
Imagine.
It will also prevent eager batters from sitting on a fastball & hanging over the plate.
Keep an eye of this pitch during Spring Training folks.
Imagine.
It will also prevent eager batters from sitting on a fastball & hanging over the plate.
Keep an eye of this pitch during Spring Training folks.
The bad news? That is the last in a long train of “if’s” required for Paddack to succeed long term.
The good news? The bones for a turnaround are already in place.
It’s now about development, consistency, & getting FB back to normal (learning cutter grip may have had impact)
The good news? The bones for a turnaround are already in place.
It’s now about development, consistency, & getting FB back to normal (learning cutter grip may have had impact)
What to expect from Chris Paddack in 2021:
165 IP
3.79 ERA
1.12 WHIP
25.5% K Rate
5.0% BB Rate
Paddack should benefit from a full offseason refining his arsenal.
It’s unwise to expect everything to fall into place, but a bounce back is something I would bet on.
165 IP
3.79 ERA
1.12 WHIP
25.5% K Rate
5.0% BB Rate
Paddack should benefit from a full offseason refining his arsenal.
It’s unwise to expect everything to fall into place, but a bounce back is something I would bet on.
@GaslampBall @FriarsOnBase @FriarWire @madfriars @AJCassavell @sdutKevinAcee @dennistlin
Entire Chris Paddack thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1339910454701936641
Entire Chris Paddack thread above, but here is a link to the beginning: https://twitter.com/mattwi77iams/status/1339910454701936641
