China vs Australia
Although iron ore exports to China are growing strongly, Oz share of the pie has shrunk

Australia share of China's iron ore imports falls 10 ppts from April. Brazil's share up 9 ppts 1/

In next 6 months Brazil can probably pick up another 3-5 ppts of market share from here. But any more limited by supply constraints 2/

H2/21 could be interesting. The combination of China demand for iron ore falling as fiscal impulse tapers and Brazilian output rising, could push Australia iron ore market share to a 10 year low 3/

This is important as China iron ore demand is driving Australian export growth thus far in 2020 4/

h2/21 pressure comes ahead of elections likely in early 2022

Does Morrison double down on China stance? Will depend on strength of demand from RoW/state of Australian economy. My guess no escalation from Aus before election, but heavy nationalist slant once campaign underway