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For over a year, Berlin has been banking on the expectation that China would feel the need to do an investment deal with the EU due to ongoing US pressure & the prospect of a transatlantic front. Two weeks ago those hopes were fading 1/8
But China has now made a series of last minute concessions to get a deal done. The view in Berlin & Brussels is that no better deal will ever be on the table. So there is a temptation to grab this even though Beijing has not moved on every EU demand - notably labour rights 2/8
Greens MP @MargareteBause pressed Merkel on this issue in the Bundestag this week. How can she do an investment deal w/China, Bause asked, at a time when Uighurs are subject to forced labour conditions in Xinjiang? 3/8 https://twitter.com/margaretebause/status/1339299128585629697
Merkel acknowledged this concern but also indicated that Xinjiang was not a red line for her in the investment talks. What’s next? We could see a “political declaration” that the EU ntends to conclude the deal as early as today. A videoconference with Xi could come next week 4/8
But getting this deal through the @Europarl_EN will be a challenge. The EP signalled in a motion this week that it won’t stay silent on Xinjiang. Some senior officials in Berlin & Brussels are very uneasy about this deal. 5/8
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/B-9-2020-0436_EN.html
https://www.europarl.europa.eu/doceo/document/B-9-2020-0436_EN.html
They say the timing, weeks before Biden takes office, is a gift for Beijing. And they worry about the lack of enforcement mechanisms. Xi can declare victory & then drag out implementation. These officials see a high risk that the EU is being instrumentalized here 6/8
There is also concern about what a deal would mean for the EU’s defensive toolbox in 2021, including Vestager’s White Paper on subsidies. Lastly, although EU officials say that this deal would not preclude transatlantic cooperation on China... 
7/8 https://ec.europa.eu/info/files/joint-communication-new-eu-us-agenda-global-change_en
7/8 https://ec.europa.eu/info/files/joint-communication-new-eu-us-agenda-global-change_en
... it does send a chill across the Atlantic and will be seen by many in Washington as a sign that the EU — and above all Berlin — cannot be relied upon as an ally in the US competition with China. What a way this would be to end 2020 END
