So someone who lacks a clear understanding of geopolitics sends me messages making an argument French presence in the region is benign. If truly France regards Nigeria as a major threat in West Africa they would have invaded, given their much greater military capability...
First of all this person lacks understanding on the dynamism of warfare. France is waging a proxy war to curb Nigeria's influence in West Africa because its the only option it has. No one wants to invade Nigeria and fight the army where it can bring all of its forces to bear.
France has an active duty force of 202,000 men and 11,000 in reserve. Nigeria has an active duty force of over 200,000 and 32,000 in reserve. Nigeria can bring its entire military might to bear in defending her territory. France is 3,000 miles away, it cannot bring
even half its manpower to bear on Nigeria. In Mali France was having such a hard time with logistics it had to call on Britain and Canada to help with strategic airlift. It doesn't matter how technically superior the French military is,
Nigeria has quantity and quantity has a quality of its own. The enemy is doomed if they attack because the Nigerian military is designed to fight its enemies with similar equipment and doctrine and will bring to bear the full weight of its military to defend her territory.
The French army has a fleet of 222 Main Battle tanks. All 3rd generation tanks. Nigeria has a fleet of 350 tanks. Again quantity negates quality. Nigeria can bring its entire tank fleet to bear in defence of her territory. The French cannot.
So the thought of a French invasion is too simplistic.Why would France want to do something as stupid as that? Not even the most enthusiastic nationalists and militarist are seriously thinking about direct military confrontation with Nigeria. War by proxy is the new battleground
If they covertly back insurgent groups in Nigeria to weaken the nation, one would expect Nigeria to back pro democracy groups in their proxies to weaken French influence. Imagine if Chad and Cameroon were functioning democracies like Ghana? No functioning democracy will allow
its country to be used as proxy against a fellow African state. The U.S tried making such overtures in Ghana. Thousands of Ghanaians took to the streets in protest. Similar efforts to base AFRICOM in Nigeria failed because Nigerians will have none of it.
Nigeria has nothing to prove really. Having fallen behind in development due to over nearly half a century of military dictatorship, Nigeria only wants to ascend to its proportional and historically rightful place
in Africa. The French sees such as a threat and is doing its utmost to undermine Nigeria in every way, including using dirty tricks such as sabotaging the Single West African Currency Project ECO. Once again why would France invade and conquer Nigeria when Nigerians
has a most dastardly and unpatriotic enemy within, ignorant hateful Nigerians and their cohorts and lackeys. They are tearing apart all that has made Nigeria great weather in theory or in practice, and ironically are doing so in the name of fighting for a greater Nigeria.
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