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Fantasy is a marketplace, and the only way you win is if you find an edge.
Doesn't matter how you do it: stats, film, stars - all are good (Astronomy obviously most superior).
The main problem w/ our evals is that we narrow our process and apply it universally.
Doesn't matter how you do it: stats, film, stars - all are good (Astronomy obviously most superior).
The main problem w/ our evals is that we narrow our process and apply it universally.
It's always good to become more diverse in evaluation methodology, log hits/misses, work to improve your hit rate,
but when processes are relatively equal, the edge is found by making plays contrary to the market. (same reason high-level GPP players care about ownership%)
but when processes are relatively equal, the edge is found by making plays contrary to the market. (same reason high-level GPP players care about ownership%)
For example, when we say "Terry McLaurin is going to suck, he never brokeout in college. The odds tell me he won't be good" we sacrifice our Edge.
Going with the trend and fading McLaurin does nothing for you. Your buddy picked him up in the 4th and now has a free WR2.
Going with the trend and fading McLaurin does nothing for you. Your buddy picked him up in the 4th and now has a free WR2.
Not a new realization, just basic market economics.
Important to remember that when the market has devalued an asset, he's cheap for a reason. The championship winning pickups are never the obvious guys.
Important to remember that when the market has devalued an asset, he's cheap for a reason. The championship winning pickups are never the obvious guys.
Profiles are nice, but buying projected volume at a low cost is almost always the right decision. Low risk, high reward.
If the volume is looking good, and you can find any reason to like the guy, he's a buy.
If the volume is looking good, and you can find any reason to like the guy, he's a buy.
Fading a player with Terry's profile + projected volume only benefits you when the market is high on the guy. Take Henry Ruggs for example. Market is late 1st, you might determine price too risky = fade.
Fade Ruggs bc of Dominator = win.
Fade McLaurin bc of Dominator = loss.
Fade Ruggs bc of Dominator = win.
Fade McLaurin bc of Dominator = loss.
Knowing that Terry would be a 3rd/4th round rookie pick, look for reasons to like the guy.
He didn't breakout, but wow he really pops on film, they love him at the Senior Bowl, he just got drafted in the 3rd round by a team with a wide open WR room, etc.
He didn't breakout, but wow he really pops on film, they love him at the Senior Bowl, he just got drafted in the 3rd round by a team with a wide open WR room, etc.
Or N'Keal Harry,
Knowing that his cost would be a high 1st, look for reasons to hate the guy.
He brokeout early, but it was in the Pac 12, he's got slow feet, doesn't have great shake, not sure if he's going to stick outside and he's not going to get looks over Edelman etc.
Knowing that his cost would be a high 1st, look for reasons to hate the guy.
He brokeout early, but it was in the Pac 12, he's got slow feet, doesn't have great shake, not sure if he's going to stick outside and he's not going to get looks over Edelman etc.
For this reason, it's immensely valuable to look for reasons to make a play contrary to the market.
Why might Brandon Aiyuk be good? What created the gap between stat nerds brushing him off and the NFL valuing him as a first rounder?
Why might Jalen Reagor suck? and so on.
Why might Brandon Aiyuk be good? What created the gap between stat nerds brushing him off and the NFL valuing him as a first rounder?
Why might Jalen Reagor suck? and so on.
If you can't find anything, DON'T make something up. Flow with the market, stick to your typical process,
But don't sacrifice a potential edge (especially w/ volume on the table) bc you were married to part of your process. Contrary market plays win fantasy championships.
But don't sacrifice a potential edge (especially w/ volume on the table) bc you were married to part of your process. Contrary market plays win fantasy championships.
We don't win because our first rounder hit.
We win bc our first rounder didn't get injured AND we picked up Alvin Kamara off waivers after the Saints traded Adrian Peterson.
The James Robinsons (UDFAs), Antonio Gibsons (poor college stats) are the ones that win leagues.
We win bc our first rounder didn't get injured AND we picked up Alvin Kamara off waivers after the Saints traded Adrian Peterson.
The James Robinsons (UDFAs), Antonio Gibsons (poor college stats) are the ones that win leagues.
Prioritize volume.
A cheap price tag means there's something people don't like about him.
You may need to look at different components than your typical process to convince yourself it is worth the bet.
If volume is the other piece, pull the trigger.
A cheap price tag means there's something people don't like about him.
You may need to look at different components than your typical process to convince yourself it is worth the bet.
If volume is the other piece, pull the trigger.