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Covid-19: The Danish exponential growth curve since July
DK is testing more than anybody else
But it almost feels as if, we are only using the test capacity to monitor the rise in cases
1/12
Graph Andreas Ryge
DK is testing more than anybody else
But it almost feels as if, we are only using the test capacity to monitor the rise in cases
1/12
Graph Andreas Ryge
DK is testing a lot
2/12
2/12
Denmark is seeing increases in cases in almost all age groups
3/12
Graph Niels Jansen
3/12
Graph Niels Jansen
As well as increases in hospitalizations & test positive%
4/12
Graph @KT_Baek
https://covid19danmark.dk/
4/12
Graph @KT_Baek
https://covid19danmark.dk/
As well as increases in Covid-19 ICU patients
5/12
5/12
Speed & tracing are more important than many accurate tests, especially if you have ineffective contact tracing
People are most infectious the first 5-7 days
Symptom onset: day 1-2
Get test: day 2-4
Answer: 4-7
Detection 2 days back from positive test
= inefficient
6/12
People are most infectious the first 5-7 days
Symptom onset: day 1-2
Get test: day 2-4
Answer: 4-7
Detection 2 days back from positive test
= inefficient
6/12
"By the time most people receive their test results, the most contagious period may be over."
Contact tracking and modeling studies show that infection transmission is at its highest during the first five days of symptoms
7/12 https://videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/krop-sundhed/covid-19-hvornaar-i-sygdomsforloebet-smitter-man-mest?fbclid=IwAR3qsewyFqE7-WR6leRE_iVslrwuocfZibodySQhEXDl8h1yADn3N1rdsQI
Contact tracking and modeling studies show that infection transmission is at its highest during the first five days of symptoms
7/12 https://videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/krop-sundhed/covid-19-hvornaar-i-sygdomsforloebet-smitter-man-mest?fbclid=IwAR3qsewyFqE7-WR6leRE_iVslrwuocfZibodySQhEXDl8h1yADn3N1rdsQI
New report from SSI on contact tracing:
"Both models show that for each day, the total waiting time for tests & test results are delayed, the R-value will increase by 4%."
8/12
https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/ny-rapport-om-effekten-af-kontaktopsporing-i-danmark?fbclid=IwAR1ksruGoc11AZOJac_T_ihifw4vfC3c1q7fTnMaFa1sFY5SULa4zIdmHSA
"Both models show that for each day, the total waiting time for tests & test results are delayed, the R-value will increase by 4%."
8/12
https://www.ssi.dk/aktuelt/nyheder/2020/ny-rapport-om-effekten-af-kontaktopsporing-i-danmark?fbclid=IwAR1ksruGoc11AZOJac_T_ihifw4vfC3c1q7fTnMaFa1sFY5SULa4zIdmHSA
Denmark has approved the use of antigen quick tests to assist in the combat of the current epidemic
The introduction of antigen quick tests are a big plus and will most likely have a positive effect in reducing the R-value
9/12 https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1324454330582388737?s=20
The introduction of antigen quick tests are a big plus and will most likely have a positive effect in reducing the R-value
9/12 https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1324454330582388737?s=20
Wrote an article about better contact tracing
Together with @johenningsen, @pellecn, Joakim Juhl, Trine Toft-Bertelsen & Oliver Alexander
10/12 https://videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/krop-sundhed/bedre-kontaktopsporing-kan-stoppe-smittespredningen-og-genaabne-samfundet
Together with @johenningsen, @pellecn, Joakim Juhl, Trine Toft-Bertelsen & Oliver Alexander
10/12 https://videnskab.dk/forskerzonen/krop-sundhed/bedre-kontaktopsporing-kan-stoppe-smittespredningen-og-genaabne-samfundet
In order to control the virus & open society, it is important to understand the nature of how the virus spreads, especially stopping cluster-spreading, such as e.g. JP/SK
Although, if South Korea cannot control it, DK will not be able to either
11/12
https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1331630608515207171?s=20
Although, if South Korea cannot control it, DK will not be able to either
11/12
https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1331630608515207171?s=20
Feels like DK is experiencing the frog myth story
Put a frog into a pot of boiling water, and it jumps out. Put it in cold water & turn on the heat, the frog will let himself be boiled
Testing a lot since summer without real tracing = slow boiling
12/12 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/25/data-are-frogs-dont-boil-we-might/
Put a frog into a pot of boiling water, and it jumps out. Put it in cold water & turn on the heat, the frog will let himself be boiled
Testing a lot since summer without real tracing = slow boiling
12/12 https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/25/data-are-frogs-dont-boil-we-might/
Another important point is that infected people are infectious up to 2 days BEFORE symptoms (pre-symptomatic individuals) and there are 10-45% asymptomatic infected as well
Efficient contact tracing is important in order to catch these individuals
https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1305042564144418817?s=20
13/12
Efficient contact tracing is important in order to catch these individuals
https://twitter.com/MartinJuhl2/status/1305042564144418817?s=20
13/12
