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Testing students in universities/colleges in Scotland; what happened ?
43,925 lateral flow (the fast ones done out of a laboratory) tests were done between 30th Nov and 12th Dec. (most students will have had 2 a few days apart.)
43,925 lateral flow (the fast ones done out of a laboratory) tests were done between 30th Nov and 12th Dec. (most students will have had 2 a few days apart.)
Of these, 79 had a positive lateral flow test result. That's 0.18%.
these students will have gone on to have a PCR (swab test that goes to lab, takes more time for result.)
these students will have gone on to have a PCR (swab test that goes to lab, takes more time for result.)
so far, there are retest results for 31 of these. Only 13 of the 31 had a positive PCR test. The others had a false positive. 58% of the positive results were a false positive.
if the rest of the students testing positive on lateral flow are similarly false positive, that means that only around 30 students will have tested truly positive.
however, a test by itself is not that useful - it's what you do with it that counts. we don't know how many students managed to isolate. survey data suggests less than 20% do. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.09.15.20191957v1.full.pdf
what about false negatives ? don't know. student population may not reflect % asymptomatic general population. it may end up having been falsely reassuring for many. so
this needs independent evaluation - and cost effectiveness evaluation. is this the right way to spend time? hundreds of uni staff working on this- is it best use of their time? I think unlikely. https://beta.isdscotland.org/media/6975/20-12-16-covid19-publication_report.pdf @NicolaSturgeon @DrGregorSmith
I wrote this in bmj about it few weeks back https://blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2020/12/01/margaret-mccartney-christmas-covid-19-testing-for-students-needs-independent-oversight/
