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Really amazing how quickly #MN03 has moved to the left. While the trend isn't anything new to the Trump era, it has certainly been accelerated by Trump driving college educated white voters out of the GOP camp. Biden's 19.2 point win would have been unthinkable a decade ago.
As I mentioned, the #MN03 trend to the left (particularly relative to the state) predated Trump. While the precinct lines don't match up exactly for perfect calculations, these are pretty close approximations to what the 2004 & 2008 performances were in the current MN-03.
While there was some movement under the hood from 2018 to 2020, @deanbphillips largely matched his 2018 performance in 2020. The NRCC actually spent some money to boost Qualls who spent $1.76M himself. This is a district @Erik_Paulsen hit 62% in as recently as 2014.
. @TinaSmithMN carried #MN03 by 13 points in 2020 after carrying it by 11.9 in 2018. @amyklobuchar of course ran up the score in 2018 carrying the district by 27.7 points. In 2014, @alfranken lost the district by just over a tenth of a point.
The DFL did make some further gains at the State House level over 2018 likely aided a bit by having a few more incumbents this time around. Big changes from when the GOP won the 2-party state house vote in 2014 & 2016.
DFL did make significant gains at the State Senate level in #MN03 as well over 2016 and even going back to 2012. Flipping #SD44 and coming closer in #SD34 and #SD33 certainly helped that margin.
For fun, here is @paulthissen's performance in #MN03 this year. This was of course a non-partisan race, so things didn't quite line up along party lines considering the Klobuchar-esq margin, though there was certainly a correlation in the more affluent burbs.
