Mike Davis is set up for potentially massive target volume against the Packers in Week 15.

His floor projection for any PPR format is higher than any RB not named Derrick Henry or Austin Ekeler.

A short (lol my threads are never short) thread:

The 52-point over/under in this game is the highest on the slate, and the Panthers are 8.5-point underdogs.

All signs point towards this being a shootout with the Panthers forced to throw a ton of passes.

Davis returned to his +70% snap rate role with CMC sidelined last week. He saw six targets (15.4% target share).

Now he faces a Packers defense that has allowed more receiving yards to opposing RB than any team in the NFL.

No team has a lower opponent average depth of target in neutral situations than the Packers.

On average, when the score is within six points, Green Bay's zone-heavy defense has held opponents to just a 5.39-yard aDOT.

Zone coverage almost always leads to more targets for the RB/TE and fewer for the WRs, and that is especially the case for Teddy Bridgewater's target distribution.

His 6.7-yard aDOT vs zone ranks 29th in the NFL, and with no real presence at TE, he's funneled targets to his RB

Bridgewater's weapons target per route run rate vs zone (+/- vs man):

26.5% - Mike Davis (+11.4%)
23.5% - Robby A (-9.8%)
23.2% - CMC (+6.5%)
18.9% - DJM (-5.9%)
16.6% - Curtis Samuel (-12.5%)