Read on Twitter
1/34 #Bitcoin 
thread, update from begin oct at $10k
#ATH! We made it! We’re all geniuses!
No, we’ve not all made it, but with a look at all the underlying stuff, we can make it.
So where do we stand, fa/ta wise?
TLDR at 29/30
Let’s go!
thread, update from begin oct at $10k#ATH! We made it! We’re all geniuses!
No, we’ve not all made it, but with a look at all the underlying stuff, we can make it.
So where do we stand, fa/ta wise?
TLDR at 29/30
Let’s go!
2/ 2 Year MA Multiplier
This indicator uses, as it says, the 2Y MA. The green line is the 2Y MA, red line is the same MA x5
2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~43k rn. Roughly, I think we’ll touch it ~mid ’21 and have like the last half year of extreme parabolic advance after
This indicator uses, as it says, the 2Y MA. The green line is the 2Y MA, red line is the same MA x5
2ya MA multiplier is rising and at ~43k rn. Roughly, I think we’ll touch it ~mid ’21 and have like the last half year of extreme parabolic advance after
3/ Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss
Paper p/l in $Btc. U can use it to track investor sentiment.
Looking at the price being at an Ath and market sentiment, it makes sense we are at greed.
As you can see we can stay around greed for a whole year. Makes sense, above Ath territory
Paper p/l in $Btc. U can use it to track investor sentiment.
Looking at the price being at an Ath and market sentiment, it makes sense we are at greed.
As you can see we can stay around greed for a whole year. Makes sense, above Ath territory
4/ 200 Week MA Heatmap
#Bitcoin likes to bottom out near the 200W MA
Colors are attached to % increase of MA
Purple = 0%
Red= 16%
Blue/purple = near MA = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = Greed = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
#Bitcoin
likes to bottom out near the 200W MAColors are attached to % increase of MA
Purple = 0%
Red= 16%
Blue/purple = near MA = Buying opportunity
Orange/red = Greed = TP opportunity
The bigger the distraction, the more parabolic price goes, simply said
5/ MVRV Z-score
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.
Red line pulls out extremes between market value&realised value
Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Pink=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.
Now: We have just started. Bullish
To identify periods when $Btc is extremely under/overvalued.
Red line pulls out extremes between market value&realised value
Green= MV unusually far below RV, buying opp
Pink=MV unusually high above RV, TP opp.
Now: We have just started. Bullish
6/ Puell Multiple
About bitcoin miners and their revenue.
It’s about value of #Bitcoins being mined and entering the ecosystem.
Green: Value of Bitcoins being issued is extremely low. Buy here
Red: The opposite. Sell here
Now: Same as 4 years ago. Bullish, going forward.
About bitcoin miners and their revenue.
It’s about value of #Bitcoins being mined and entering the ecosystem.
Green: Value of Bitcoins being issued is extremely low. Buy here
Red: The opposite. Sell here
Now: Same as 4 years ago. Bullish, going forward.
7/ Stock to flow model
Hated & Loved on #CT
Simply put: $Btc is scarce, limited supply. More demand, less flow (halvening): Number goes up.
History still rhymes, a lot. I don’t see it following the model forever, but I also don’t see why it would change during current cycle.
Hated & Loved on #CT
Simply put: $Btc is scarce, limited supply. More demand, less flow (halvening): Number goes up.
History still rhymes, a lot. I don’t see it following the model forever, but I also don’t see why it would change during current cycle.
8/ 1Y+ Hodl Wave
#Btc that haven’t moved for more than 1 year. If $Btc goes parabolic, 1Y+ decreases, because there is profit taking. Doesn’t happen overnight. Notice how 1Y+ Hodl went down whole 2017
For now, lil’ bit profit taking, but not even close to end of ’17 stylish
#Btc
that haven’t moved for more than 1 year. If $Btc goes parabolic, 1Y+ decreases, because there is profit taking. Doesn’t happen overnight. Notice how 1Y+ Hodl went down whole 2017For now, lil’ bit profit taking, but not even close to end of ’17 stylish
9/ Pi cycle top indicator
Has historically “called” the top of a full bull market cycle high to within 3 days! It uses 2 not so common MA’s.
Usefull to indicate whether the market is very overheated.
A correction here makes sense, but short term only. Htf top not in. Bullish
Has historically “called” the top of a full bull market cycle high to within 3 days! It uses 2 not so common MA’s.
Usefull to indicate whether the market is very overheated.
A correction here makes sense, but short term only. Htf top not in. Bullish
10/ The Golden Ratio Multiplier
Uses GR multiples of the 350 DMA to pick (intra)cycle highs of the price of $Btc.
As #Btc becomes adopted over time, explosive growth on log scale is slowing. Most logical top, based on this indicator is 350 DMA x3
Ltf correction makes sense tho
Uses GR multiples of the 350 DMA to pick (intra)cycle highs of the price of $Btc.
As #Btc
becomes adopted over time, explosive growth on log scale is slowing. Most logical top, based on this indicator is 350 DMA x3Ltf correction makes sense tho
11/ Bitcoin profitable days
When was it profitable to buy $Btc, relative to today’s price?
% profitable days holding #Btc: 100%, lol ofc
Supply = limited
Demand: grows
Price: moves up, over time.
Simple shizzle
Corrections make sense to wash out traders
When was it profitable to buy $Btc, relative to today’s price?
% profitable days holding #Btc
: 100%, lol ofcSupply = limited
Demand: grows
Price: moves up, over time.
Simple shizzle
Corrections make sense to wash out traders
12/ Reverse Risk
Confidence high? Price low? R/R to invest is attractive: green zone.
We’ve just left the green zone, like we did begin ’17.
Buy green, sell red. Simple shit.
Wanna know more? https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/reserve-risk/
Confidence high? Price low? R/R to invest is attractive: green zone.
We’ve just left the green zone, like we did begin ’17.
Buy green, sell red. Simple shit.
Wanna know more? https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/reserve-risk/
13/ Bitcoin logarithmic growth curves
% of price growth decreases, but bottoms and tops will be higher. Narrowing. No cycle top before $100K? Highly possible imho
The chart speaks for itself
% of price growth decreases, but bottoms and tops will be higher. Narrowing. No cycle top before $100K? Highly possible imho
The chart speaks for itself
14/ Google trends
A simple, but effective way to track interest in $Btc around the globe
Simply put, interest in #Bitcoin is less than 1/6th of what it was at the 2017 peak.
Remember the hype when we where above 20k in 2017? Yes, it has completely disappeared, tho we are at Ath
A simple, but effective way to track interest in $Btc around the globe
Simply put, interest in #Bitcoin
is less than 1/6th of what it was at the 2017 peak. Remember the hype when we where above 20k in 2017? Yes, it has completely disappeared, tho we are at Ath
15/ Difficulty Ribbon
To view miner capitulation, signals times when buying is sensible
When network difficulty reduces rate of climb: weak miners leave, strong miners survive: less sell pressure.
Best time to buy is where the Ribbon compresses.
It’s still compressed.
To view miner capitulation, signals times when buying is sensible
When network difficulty reduces rate of climb: weak miners leave, strong miners survive: less sell pressure.
Best time to buy is where the Ribbon compresses.
It’s still compressed.
16/ (1/2) Bitcoin RVT Ratio (Realised Value to Transaction Ratio)
It compares transaction volume to the relevant valuation.
RTV Ratio uses Realised market cap. That is a Bitcoin value model representing average cost basis of the entire market, also discounting lost coins.
It compares transaction volume to the relevant valuation.
RTV Ratio uses Realised market cap. That is a Bitcoin value model representing average cost basis of the entire market, also discounting lost coins.
17/ (2/2) Bitcoin RVT Ratio
RVT high/increasing: Price overvalued
RVT low/decreasing: Price undervalued
RVT sideways: sustainable valuation, relative to transaction volume.
Now: relatively low & sideways. Bullish sign
RVT high/increasing: Price overvalued
RVT low/decreasing: Price undervalued
RVT sideways: sustainable valuation, relative to transaction volume.
Now: relatively low & sideways. Bullish sign
18/ Bitcoin network momentum
About the value transmitted through the bitcoin blockchain.
We should simply need high levels of value to drive the bull market.
We saw it a bit in 2019, but now we haven’t even started, while price is much higher. #Bullish imo
About the value transmitted through the bitcoin blockchain.
We should simply need high levels of value to drive the bull market.
We saw it a bit in 2019, but now we haven’t even started, while price is much higher. #Bullish imo
19/ Mayer multiple
A measurement to see if btc is under/overvalued, HTF, plotted against it’s 200 D ma.
The Bitcoin market as a whole becomes larger, thus less volatile, so the peaks on this indicator are becoming less high.
Now: ~1.5. Room for growth
A measurement to see if btc is under/overvalued, HTF, plotted against it’s 200 D ma.
The Bitcoin market as a whole becomes larger, thus less volatile, so the peaks on this indicator are becoming less high.
Now: ~1.5. Room for growth
20/ Bitcoin Vwap
Vwap combines power of volume with price action.
Usefull to confirm a trend or to time entry/exit points.
To determine the average price market participants payed fort heir coins.
It’s also a kind of a trend flow.
Check the chart to train your eyes.
Vwap combines power of volume with price action.
Usefull to confirm a trend or to time entry/exit points.
To determine the average price market participants payed fort heir coins.
It’s also a kind of a trend flow.
Check the chart to train your eyes.
21/ Bitcoin Supply on exchanges
Ever since the March drop, balance on exchanges goes down.
Where r those coins going? Right: Cold storage wallets. Investors Hodl their coins.
Extremely bullish imo!
Ever since the March drop, balance on exchanges goes down.
Where r those coins going? Right: Cold storage wallets. Investors Hodl their coins.
Extremely bullish imo!
22/ Bitcoin inflation rate
I think this one speaks for itself if you know something about inflation
It will keep on decreasing after each halving.
I think this one speaks for itself if you know something about inflation
It will keep on decreasing after each halving.
23/ Halvings
The fresh supply miners will recieve for mining a block get’s cut in half every ~4 years. We’ve recently witnessed a halving last may. Reward for miners cut in half means price has to be high enough for them to keep active . So are they?
Yes, Read on…
The fresh supply miners will recieve for mining a block get’s cut in half every ~4 years. We’ve recently witnessed a halving last may. Reward for miners cut in half means price has to be high enough for them to keep active . So are they?
Yes, Read on…
24/ Hash rate
Measuremet of the computing power of the Btc network.
The higher the hash rate, the more miners active, the more secure the network. Dips have been absorved fast.
Bullish
Miners wouldn’t mine if it wasn’t profitable in the long run, right?
Measuremet of the computing power of the Btc network.
The higher the hash rate, the more miners active, the more secure the network. Dips have been absorved fast.
Bullish
Miners wouldn’t mine if it wasn’t profitable in the long run, right?
25/ Tether Marketcap
BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, in a good way
BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR, in a good way
26/ Long term estimated view
The cycles are quite obvious when you zoom out. % of increase gets less each cycle as the market matures. Still impressive gains to be made. The ‘new parabola’ is just a really rough estimation.
Betting against this is like Harakiri
The cycles are quite obvious when you zoom out. % of increase gets less each cycle as the market matures. Still impressive gains to be made. The ‘new parabola’ is just a really rough estimation.
Betting against this is like Harakiri
27/ Abbreviations
MA= Moving Average
P/L= Profit/Loss
DCA= Dollar Cost Averaging
MC= Market Cap
TP= Take Profit
#CT= Crypto Twitter
Ath= All time high
HODL= Hold On for Dear Life
R/R= Risk/Reward Ratio
Imo= in my opinion
MA= Moving Average
P/L= Profit/Loss
DCA= Dollar Cost Averaging
MC= Market Cap
TP= Take Profit
#CT= Crypto Twitter
Ath= All time high
HODL= Hold On for Dear Life
R/R= Risk/Reward Ratio
Imo= in my opinion
28/ Resources
While making this thread, I used the following websites:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/
https://charts.woobull.com/
https://glassnode.com/
https://cryptoquant.com
While making this thread, I used the following websites:
https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/
https://charts.woobull.com/
https://glassnode.com/
https://cryptoquant.com
29/ (1/2) TLDR;
I showed a lot of fundamentals, and almost every single one of them is still extremely bullish fort he coming year(s).
Patience is a virtue. Can’t say that enough. Zoom out on your charts, go check out all the charts I posted yourself, it’s worth it!
I showed a lot of fundamentals, and almost every single one of them is still extremely bullish fort he coming year(s).
Patience is a virtue. Can’t say that enough. Zoom out on your charts, go check out all the charts I posted yourself, it’s worth it!
30/ (2/2) Don’t get yourself rekt changing your bias based on a 1h chart. Zoom out, every day/week. Keeps yourself calm.
The fundamentals and the charts don’t lie. We will go up, over time. A lot. Stick to your plan, set targets, turn off your screen and have a wonderfull day!
The fundamentals and the charts don’t lie. We will go up, over time. A lot. Stick to your plan, set targets, turn off your screen and have a wonderfull day!
