For many of us, there is less than a 10% chance that we will need to use a firearm defensively in our lives. The likelihood of a magnitude 7.1+ earthquake off the Oregon coast in the next 50 years is about 37%. This will mean 2-16 weeks without power, water, or aid. 1/4

It will mean a pileup of problems. Ambulances stalled because the power to pump their gas is out, which the power utility can’t repair because of a landslide. Cell towers collapsed, internet disrupted, natural gas leaks. 2/4

Crises that generate other crises that prevent fixing the sources. We’re about as likely to experience this as a police spouse is to experience domestic violence. 3/4

The goal here is not to doompost, but to orient our preparations towards high-percentage threats. We Keep Us Safe, which means not just practicing marksmanship with a plate carrier on but figuring out a system to purify water or communicate without cell or internet service. 4/4