Our latest update on England admissions and deaths sees the 7 day MA for the former now above the previous second wave peak in mid Nov, and the current rate of growth is equivalent to a doubling time of around a month. There's considerable regional variation, covered later. 1/4
Our estimate of R, based on admissions, may be levelling off at just under 1.2. As already noted though, this would imply doubling approximately every month, so is not a sustainable position at the current high level of admissions. 2/4
For deaths, after a few days where the 7DMA had levelled it has now clearly started to increase again, which is to be expected given the trend in admissions. Unfortunately we can expect this to continue and it is likely to reach a new second wave peak during the Xmas week. 3/4