1/n Quick thread on today's jobless claims numbers, with a single state focus. It is grim news that highlights how misleading the jobless rate is today. As of Oct, Indiana's unemployment rate was 5%, but had lost 3.9% of its jobs since January and 1.5% of its labor force.

2/n But, there were 428k persons receiving Unemployment Insurance benefits under regular state and the two CARES ACT programs (PUA/PUEC). Imputing the unemployment rate from the UI data gave a 12.8% rate. Including the labor force leavers saw us with an 8.9% rate. Why different?

3/n The business survey for the official unemployment rate counts even very low part time work as employed. Many of these workers are eligible for UI assistance based on reduced income. Surely, the decline in labor force is due to kids out of school, etc. So, part of pandemic.

4/n Leadership at the state's DWD has hinted at UI fraud. The typical fraud/error rate (mostly error) is usually just over 10%. But, it turns out that the supplemental survey of displaced workers conducted by BLS/Census closely matches the number of UI claimants. Not fraud.

5/n But, even bigger evidence that this is not fraud comes in the dynamics of the program. Last week, near the end of the program, the PUA leavers plummeted. IN went from 349k to 625K in PUA continued claims. Modest change in PUEC and regular state UI.

6/n This is pretty strong evidence that the normal churn of workers heading back to work ended in the middle of NOV (before Thanksgiving) as COVID rates skyrocketed in Indiana.

Maybe DWD made an accounting error and didn't drop 275K off the program, but likely not.

7/n Timing and a holiday is always a data worry. But, to be clear, as of today's data nearly 680k workers in Indiana are set to see their benefits end in a little over a week. As of today's data, roughly 22% of Hoosier workers are receiving some form of unemployment benefits.