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At the end of a tough year, I've been reflecting on energy transition and climate progress in 2020. There are quite a few reasons to be optimistic! (thread)
1. Emissions are down. We estimate US emissions could be down 9% this year, and the global figure might be similar. We cannot celebrate how this happened, but it does to an extent reset the baseline for the next few years.
2. The global energy transition has not lost any momentum, despite all the challenges. Wind + solar might hit a record of 200GW installations this year, which was our pre-pandemic estimate. EV sales are growing quickly. EU carbon prices are high. Corporate commitments are rising.
3. 'Build back better' seems to be catching. Countries have approved $172bn in green stimulus so far, and the EU will add about $600bn to that. Japan is getting on board. The US might, too. All in all, green stimulus might get close to $1tn! (And hydrogen is getting a big boost)
4. National climate commitments have accelerated markedly. With China, Japan and Korea, we now think about 42% of global emissions are covered by a somewhat credible net-zero target. (Others incl. UNFCCC put the number higher, but our bar for credibility is high.) @AI_Energy
And some of these mid-century net zero targets are starting to be translated into near-term targets. The UK is targeting 68% emission cuts by 2030, Europe 55%. Real policymaking is underway to try and hit these targets. @Emma__Champion
But there's a catch: we are not deploying new technologies at anywhere near the pace needed to meet these targets. Not even renewables and EVs, which are the most mature, most obvious solutions. As ambition rises, the gap between ambition and action widens.
Even if wind and solar do hit 200GW this year, that's less than one-third of what's needed every year between now and 2030, in our Climate Scenario which charts a path to sub-2 degrees by 2050. @SebHenbest
We're in a moment of climate optimism, but we need to channel that optimism into action! Check out my piece on @BloombergNEF for more: https://about.bnef.com/blog/cheung-2020-has-put-us-back-in-the-climate-fight/
