Read on Twitter
Terrible unemployment data from DOL this morning, so a thread to tell you how much is at stake in the final negotiations over a rescue package.
Today’s unemployment report shows an economy that is getting worse before it gets better, just as Congress is on the verge of either passing an overdue stimulus package or sending 12 million workers off a UI benefits cliff.
Layoffs continued in the week ending 12/12, with 1.39 million new claims (935,000 state and 455,000 federal), up slightly from last week and reaching the highest level since Sept 19th.
States like California and Illinois showed especially high new unemployment totals, with increased layoffs in food services and retail sectors impacted by public health restrictions.
Today’s report comes as 14 million workers on PUA (9.2 million) and PEUC (4.8 million) are set to lose all aid in just over a week. This total is trending above our initial estimate of 12 million from 11/18, without any guarantee of federal support to get through the winter.
To drive home the stakes for renewing aid for American workers, new data from @CpspPoverty finds 4.8 people, inc 1.3 million children, will fall into poverty in January if the Senate allows these benefits to expire. https://www.povertycenter.columbia.edu/news-internal/2020/forecasting-poverty/expiring-cares-act-jan-poverty-rise
The one economic indicator that is falling is continued claims for state UI, which are now at 5.5 million -- down from 12.4 million on September 1. But claims are down because long-term unemployed are burning through their eligibility, not because they are finding work.
This should all drive home that stakes are incredibly high for 12 million unemployed in today’s final negotiations.
WSJ indicates that negotiators are considering FURTHER cutting back the minimal unemployment package that offer 16 weeks of additional pandemic benefits (originally 39 in CARES) and a $300 per week supplement (initially $600), and **no** retroactive pay https://www.wsj.com/articles/congressional-leaders-discussing-adding-a-second-round-of-stimulus-checks-11608127735
In past economic downturns, unemployment benefits were not an effective way to target aid at those who needed it the most. Only about half of jobless got them, and women and people of color were most likely left out.
But, with unemployment benefits on steroids, unemployment delivered HALF A TRILLION dollars in aid to families during the pandemic.
https://tcf.org/content/data/unemployment-insurance-data-dashboard/
https://tcf.org/content/data/unemployment-insurance-data-dashboard/
As the pandemic has worn on, those on benefits are increasingly people of color, as the share of black workers on UI jumped by 40 percent from spring to fall, and 2.3 million Black workers are facing the UI cliff next week. https://tcf.org/content/commentary/looming-unemployment-cliff-will-hit-women-people-color-hardest/
We don’t have good data on demographics of those on PUA, but in California, black workers are 52% more likely to be cut off.
The new pandemic unemployment assistance delivered aid to millions of workers who never got aid before. Case in point--high school student workers in Minnesota denied UI since 1939 won PUA aid with the help of progressive AG Keith Ellison https://www.minnpost.com/education/2020/12/why-minnesota-high-school-students-fought-so-hard-to-win-pandemic-unemployment-benefits/
The stimulus package should be $4 or $5 trillion, not $900 billion, and should be able to include all elements: UI, direct payments to individuals, paid leave, and state aid, to name a few.
But at this stage, every dime cut out of the $180 billion of UI in the package proposed by the bipartisan group on Monday to make room for other priorities cuts at its ability to enhance racial equity and prevent needless poverty.
With the vaccine still months away from being fully available, the needs of the unemployed are not going away any time soon. Congress cannot let competing priorities shortchange the unemployed.
The suffering of the pandemic is concentrated among the unemployed, especially large numbers of low-wage, workers of color, and aid must be directed at these families without delay. It’s past time for Congress to seal the deal. #ExtendUI #ReliefCantWait
