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Thinking further about this...
What the European Parliament has said takes us only as far as Sunday
There are 2 options:
A Deal by then can be ratified 28 Dec by EP
There's nothing by then https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1339545016033796096
What the European Parliament has said takes us only as far as Sunday
There are 2 options:
A Deal by then can be ratified 28 Dec by EP There's nothing by then https://twitter.com/jonworth/status/1339545016033796096
What happens with is pretty obvious
With it's less obvious
The Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
is pretty obviousWith
it's less obviousThe Council could go to the EP "tough" - we'll keep talking to the last minute, and EP has to stomach Provisional Application
There are two problems here.
First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
First, the Council will be playing the UK's brinkmanship game - and the 27 Member States might be wondering what nasties are buried in the Treaty they didn't spot because time was short
Second, Provisional Application possibly opens up the Wallonia problem - i.e. if the EP can have a say after the fact, why can't other parliaments too? We're not sure that dog is going to bark, but it might...
So Provisional Application is only one way forward
So Provisional Application is only one way forward
You can bet that if there's no text to examine, the EP will escalate this - and demand more time
They will ask for a mini Treaty to get more time for scrutiny, and their rationale would be good - we want to do our job. And other parliaments might back them. Even some MPs
They will ask for a mini Treaty to get more time for scrutiny, and their rationale would be good - we want to do our job. And other parliaments might back them. Even some MPs
There are dangers here - the EP (or others) could use the extra time to find problems with the Deal, and this could drag and drag and drag
But to adapt a well known phrase, a Delayed Deal would be better than a Bad Deal, and the Council doesn't have much of a line against that
But to adapt a well known phrase, a Delayed Deal would be better than a Bad Deal, and the Council doesn't have much of a line against that
This might eventually boil down to the question: how determined are the Member States in the Council to just get this thing *done* as quickly as possible?
Until we know that, Provisional Application in case of further delay is not a foregone conclusion
Until we know that, Provisional Application in case of further delay is not a foregone conclusion
Views of @DavidHenigUK @usherwood @StevePeers @tconnellyRTE and especially @NashSGC (who argued strongly earlier that Provisional Application would happen) would be v welcome
/ends
/ends
