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Another 1.3 million people applied for UI last week, including 885,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 455,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA). 1/ https://www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
The 1.3 million who applied for UI last week was an increase of 63,000 from the prior week. This was second week in a row of increases and initial claims are now at their highest point since September. Layoffs are rising as the virus surges and demand weakens. 2/
And, last week was the 39th straight week total initial claims were greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). (If you restrict to regular state claims—b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR—initial claims were greater than the second-worst week of the GR.) 3/
Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits. Given the length of this crisis, many workers have exhausted their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 273,000. 4/
For now, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemp Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. However, PEUC is not rising as fast as continuing claims for regular state UI is dropping. Why? 5/
Many of the roughly 2 million people who were on UI before the recession began, or who are in states w/ less than 26 weeks of regular state benefits, are now exhausting PEUC, at the same time others are getting on it. 6/
DOL reports that almost 2 million workers have exhausted PEUC so far—and this is a vast undercount because many states have not yet reported PEUC exhaustions past October. 7/
In some states, if workers exhaust PEUC, they can get on yet another program, Extended Benefits (EB). In the latest data, 694,000 workers were on EB. That’s likely less than a third of those who have exhausted PEUC. Most are left with nothing. 8/
This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data for this are for Nov 28). Continuing claims in all programs haven’t been this high since mid-October, even with the exhaustions we’ve seen since then. 9/
Republicans in the Senate allowed FPUC, the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits, to expire at the end of July. Last week was the 20th week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not receive the extra payment. 10/
And w/o congressional action, PUA & PEUC will expire on Dec 26. Millions of workers are depending on these programs (DOL reports 14.0 mil in the latest data). If they expire, millions of these workers & their families will be financially devastated. 11/
Another thing to remember in all this is that with the pandemic UI provisions, 39 weeks is the current maximum number of weeks of UI most people can claim (either 26 weeks of regular benefits + 13 weeks of PEUC, or 39 weeks of PUA). 12/
Given that we are now 39+ weeks into this crisis, Congress must not only extend the pandemic programs, but also add additional weeks of eligibility. Thirty-nine weeks is not enough. 13/
The House passed a $3 trillion relief package in May, but McConnell had, until now, blocked additional COVID relief. But a $900 billion bipartisan relief and recovery bill now appears poised to pass. 14/
This bill would likely provide a 16-week extension of both PEUC and PUA, and reinstate FPUC. However, FPUC would be reinstated at only $300 per week, not $600. The $300 is not ideal, but it’s far better than nothing. 15/
One reason it’s unfortunate FPUC was reduced to $300 is that UI is extremely effective economic stimulus. As @eliselgould and @joshbivens_DC show, reinstating the $600 FPUC would create or save 3.3 million jobs. The $300 will create half that. 16/ https://www.epi.org/blog/reinstating-and-extending-the-pandemic-unemployment-insurance-programs-through-2021-could-create-or-save-5-1-million-jobs/
There are now 26.1 million workers who are either unemployed, otherwise out of work because of the virus, or have seen a drop in hours and pay because of the pandemic. And job growth is slowing. Stimulus is desperately needed. 17/ https://www.epi.org/blog/the-economy-president-elect-biden-is-inheriting-more-than-26-million-workers-15-5-of-the-workforce-are-being-directly-hurt-by-the-coronavirus-downturn/
To get the economy back on track in a reasonable timeframe, policymakers should pass roughly $3 trillion in fiscal support, with the first $2 trillion hitting the economy between now and mid-2022. 18/ https://www.epi.org/publication/principles-for-the-relief-and-recovery-phase-of-rebuilding-the-u-s-economy-use-debt-go-big-and-stay-big-and-be-very-slow-when-turning-off-fiscal-support/ @joshbivens_DC
That means that even if the bill being considered now passes, more stimulus will be needed early next year, because what is being considered now is nowhere near big enough. 19/
A key missing piece from the bill is aid to state & local govts, which is crucial to a speedy recovery. However, McConnell demanded that if state & local aid were included, truly outrageous corporate immunity provisions must also be included. 20/ https://newrepublic.com/article/160496/covid-corporate-liability-mcconnell-collins
Not enacting more stimulus will slow the recovery and will exacerbate racial inequality. Due to the impact of historic & current systemic racism, Black and Latinx workers have seen more job loss in this pandemic, and have less wealth to fall back on. 21/
And of course, people haven’t just lost their jobs. Millions of workers and their family members have lost employer-provided health insurance due to job loss in the coronavirus downturn. 22/
Earlier in this thread I said that UI provisions would be extended by 16 weeks. That is wrong/old—it has reportedly been whittled down to 10 weeks. This is SO STUPID. 23/ https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1339569400844849153?s=20
An only 10-week extension of UI benefits would mean MILLIONS would exhaust benefits by the end of February, when the virus is surging and job openings remain scarce. This is shameful.
Here's this tweet thread in blog-post form. What a disaster. n/ https://www.epi.org/blog/unemployment-insurance-claims-continue-to-climb-congress-must-pass-a-stimulus-package-to-prevent-millions-of-people-from-being-left-with-nothing/
